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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Market
As Bitcoin (BTC) underwent a short-term correction and fell below the $83,000 mark, the fervor for bets in prediction markets, which had foreseen a breakthrough to $100,000 this year, took a breather. The probability of reaching $100,000, which had exceeded 40%, dropped to the early 30s. However, market participants believe that the long-term upward trajectory itself remains valid, merely with the timing of the rise delayed to 2027.
According to the crypto-specialized media Bitcoin.com on September 29 (local time), the probability of Bitcoin touching $100,000 by 2026 on the US regulatory approval prediction market platform Kalshi recently fell to 34%. This contract probability, which stood at 17% on September 16, surged to 43% on September 22, boosted by massive ETF buying and a short squeeze, and then soared to 46% the next morning. However, as Bitcoin's price retreated below $83,000, it plummeted to 34 cents in a single day, showing a rapid rollercoaster movement.
A similar psychological contraction was observed on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket. Polymarket participants reflect a 34.5% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026. For Bitcoin to surpass its high of $97,000 recorded last January and enter six-figure territory, an additional rebound of about 20% is needed by year-end, but the probability has adjusted due to a wave of short-term profit-taking.
However, market participants are not denying the achievement of $100,000 itself but rather pushing back the timing of its achievement. Looking at Polymarket's prediction contracts for reaching $100,000 by period, the probability of achievement by March 31, 2027, jumps to 50.5%. Furthermore, it reaches 61.5% by June 30, 2027, and an impressive 81% by December 31, 2027, indicating strong confidence in the mid-to-long-term breakthrough possibility.
Optimism is also resurfacing within prominent Wall Street financial institutions. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, who had previously designated 2026 as a "rest year," recently shifted his stance to forecast a $100,000 target. The fact that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their largest weekly net inflow since October 2025 and that approximately 75% of experts are predicting a trend reversal in the cryptocurrency cycle are also cited as driving forces for an upturn.
Short-term price corrections and the shock of large-scale derivative liquidations have temporarily lowered expectations for an early achievement of $100,000 this year. With "Uptober," traditionally considered a bullish month, approaching, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can regain buying momentum and reverse the probabilities in prediction markets.
[Article Key Summary]
-As Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $83,000, Kalshi's probability of reaching $100,000 by year-end plummeted from 43% to 34%.
-Polymarket's probability of reaching $100,000 surged to 50.5% by March 2027 and 81% by the end of 2027, maintaining long-term confidence.
-Amidst record inflows into spot ETFs and Fidelity's change in stance, attention is focused on a potential rebound in October.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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