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XRP (Ripple) spot ETFs are continuing the longest record of net inflows in the altcoin market for 10 consecutive weeks, but it appears there is still not enough power to push the XRP price above $1.60. The cumulative net inflow for the 7 XRP ETFs in the U.S. has grown to approximately $1.79 billion, and assets under management (AUM) to about $2 billion, but the XRP held by ETFs accounts for only 1.9% of the circulating supply, indicating a clear gap between consistent institutional buying and actual price impact.
According to the investment media TradingNews on September 29 (local time), U.S. XRP spot ETFs hold approximately 1.2 billion XRP, with cumulative net inflows reaching about $1.79 billion. ETF assets increased by 80% in the third quarter, reaching an all-time high, and last week saw a net inflow of $76 million. On September 25 alone, $22.65 million flowed in. The Bitwise XRP ETF leads with cumulative inflows of $676.29 million, followed by Franklin Templeton XRPZ with $500.99 million, and Canary Capital XRPC with cumulative net inflows of approximately $489 million to $493 million. The top three products account for about 93% of the total cumulative inflows.
However, compared to the sustained institutional demand, the buying intensity of XRP ETFs relative to their asset size is not significant. Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs saw inflows of $2.39 billion, Ethereum (ETH) spot ETFs $689.8 million, and Solana (SOL) spot ETFs $188 million, while XRP ETF net inflows amounted to only $76 million. In terms of proportion to market capitalization, BTC, ETH, and SOL were 0.14%, 0.21%, and 0.27% respectively, but XRP remained at 0.08%. TradingNews evaluated XRP ETF as the most consistent institutional buying in the altcoin market, yet the smallest ETF demand when compared to the size of the underlying asset.
The price also reflects these limitations. XRP is trading between $1.50 and $1.55, with a 24-hour range of $1.47 to $1.53 and a trading volume of $4.34 billion. While it is above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) of $1.46, $1.37, and $1.35 respectively, the 50-week EMA at $1.52 and the 100-week EMA at $1.58 are pressuring the upside. Particularly, as break-even selling pressure accumulated from investors who bought between $1.50 and $1.70 in August, $1.60-$1.62 has formed a strong resistance level. The media emphasized the possibility of XRP moving within the $1.43-$1.62 range until weekly ETF inflows recover to over $100 million, similar to August.
Ripple's escrow holdings are also a factor limiting the ETF's effect. Currently, approximately 37 billion XRP remain in escrow, valued at about $55 billion at a price of $1.50. Ripple typically releases 1 billion XRP each month, then re-escrows 700-800 million XRP, and sells or uses 200-300 million XRP for business operations. The next release date is October 1. Compared to the 1.2 billion XRP held by ETFs, the escrow balance is approximately 30 times larger. TradingNews analyzed that while consistent ETF buying supports the price floor, the current weekly inflow volume alone is unlikely to be a catalyst to break through the $1.60 resistance.
Future turning points are $1.5495 and $1.62. The media suggested that if a daily closing price is formed above $1.5495, it could test $1.57 and $1.62 sequentially. If $1.62 is also breached, weekly ETF net inflows could expand again to over $100 million, and $1.70 and $1.96 could emerge as the next targets. Conversely, if XRP falls below $1.4335 amid Bitcoin's weakness, $1.40 and $1.37 are presented as the next support levels. Ultimately, the analysis concludes that while 10 consecutive weeks of ETF net inflows demonstrate structural demand for XRP, breaking through the $1.60 barrier requires both further expansion of institutional funds and a price breakthrough simultaneously.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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