Bitcoin (BTC) 'All-Stop' Due to Treasury Yields...Will It Rebound with 3 Major Signals?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Wall Street/ChatGPT generated image

A sharp rise in U.S. treasury yields put a brake on Bitcoin (BTC)'s short-term uptrend. However, an optimistic analysis emerged, suggesting that the rally could resume soon, as three key technical indicators supporting the market's downside were observed.

According to U.S. financial media outlet Benzinga on September 29 (local time), Bitcoin was pushed down to the $84,000 level last week. Macroeconomic indicators, such as Brent crude oil prices surpassing $103 on September 23 and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) hitting a 62-month high, drove up bond yields. Moulik Nagesh and Ken Lam, analysts at Binance Research, diagnosed that long-term treasury yield pressure is placing a greater burden on the virtual asset market than the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy.

However, Binance Research analysts noted three strong rebound signals that could offset macroeconomic pressures. The first factor is the dramatic shift to net inflows in Bitcoin spot ETF demand. Bitcoin spot ETFs, which experienced outflows for most of 2026, bottomed out on July 13 with cumulative net outflows of $5.69 billion. Subsequently, buying momentum revived, with a record $999 million flowing in on September 21 alone, the highest for this year. Even amidst bond sell-offs, the annual cumulative flow turned positive, proving that genuine spot demand, not futures speculation, is supporting the market.

Positive trend reversal signals were also consecutively confirmed on technical charts. Bitcoin closed at $81,159 in the weekly candle ending September 20. This marks the first time in 45 weeks, since November 9, 2025, that it has recovered the 50-week moving average. Historically, it is rare for Bitcoin to fall to a new cycle low after reclaiming the 50-week moving average, thus it is considered a strong support level.

The occurrence of a golden cross, breaking a long-term bear market, was cited as the third upward driver. A golden cross, where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, formed on Bitcoin's daily chart on September 8. This signifies a complete exit from a deep correction phase of 293 days, during which it remained below the 200-day moving average.

While short-term macroeconomic volatility remains ahead of inflation and employment data releases, key indicators are unanimously pointing to a resumption of the uptrend. Bitcoin, having absorbed the treasury yield shock, is expected to stage a further rebound, leveraging spot ETF buying momentum and technical support levels.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin (BTC) was pushed down to the $84,000 level due to surging treasury yields, but three rebound indicators have been observed.

-Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $999 million in one day, turning the annual cumulative flow positive.

-The recapture of the 50-week moving average after 45 weeks and the completion of a golden cross after 293 days were presented as signals for a resumption of the uptrend.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*