Ripple (XRP) supply piled up at $1.60… Can ETF buying power break through?

▲ Ripple (XRP) ©Go Dasol

XRP is exploring its direction at $1.50. While 10 consecutive weeks of spot ETF inflows and an upward structure on the daily chart are supporting the price, supply piled up near $1.60 and high US Treasury yields are hindering a rise, making the breakthrough of $1.55 a key turning point for the next move.

According to investment media TradingNews on September 29 (local time), XRP (Ripple) traded at $1.50, moving between $1.47 and $1.53 over 24 hours. Trading volume was reported at $4.34 billion, and market capitalization at $94.06 billion. It fell 4% in the last 7 days but rose 46% over 90 days. XRP is above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) of $1.46, $1.37, and $1.35, respectively, and its RSI (Relative Strength Index) is 57.8, not yet entering the overbought zone. On the other hand, the 50-week EMA at $1.52 and the 100-week EMA at $1.58 are still above the price, acting as medium-to-long-term resistance.

Institutional demand remains steady. US spot XRP ETFs have recorded net inflows for 10 consecutive weeks, with Assets Under Management (AUM) growing to an all-time high of approximately $1.8 billion. Last week's net inflow was $76 million, and even on September 26, when XRP price fell 4.6% in a single day, $22.65 million flowed in. However, most weekly inflows in September ranged from $10 million to $19 million, which was not a significant amount compared to the daily trading volume of $4.34 billion. The media analyzed that while ETF funds are supporting the price bottom near $1.43, they are not strong enough on their own to trigger a powerful breakout.

On the upside, selling pressure from August buyers is a burden. After large-scale transactions occurred between $1.50 and $1.70 at that time, XRP fell to $1.25 in mid-September, leaving many high-point buyers in a loss zone. As the price approached their purchase price again, they started selling at break-even, forming a strong resistance zone between $1.53 and $1.60. Technically, if a daily close is formed above $1.5495-$1.55, an attempt to break through $1.57, then $1.60-$1.62, could be made. If this range is surpassed, $1.70 and the year-end target of $1.96 are suggested as the next upward targets. Conversely, if $1.4335 is breached, the possibility of a correction to $1.40, then $1.37, and further to $1.33 increases.

On the supply side, Ripple's scheduled escrow release on October 1 is a variable. Currently, about 37 billion XRP remain in escrow, valued at approximately $55 billion based on a $1.50 price. Ripple regularly releases 1 billion XRP each month, and in the past, it has re-escrowed 700-800 million XRP and used 200-300 million XRP for operations and partnerships. The media pointed out that the approximately $1.8 billion in assets held by ETFs translates to only about 1.2 billion XRP, meaning Ripple's unreleased holdings are about 30 times larger than the entire ETF size, posing a supply burden.

The macroeconomic environment is also a variable that will determine XRP's direction. With US 10-year Treasury yields rising to 5.264%, the market is reflecting about a 70% chance of another rate hike in October. The media suggested that if inflation and employment indicators ease and Bitcoin (BTC) breaks above $87,300, XRP could rise past $1.55 and $1.62 to $1.70 by mid-October. Conversely, if strong economic indicators cause BTC to retest $82,000, XRP could break $1.43 and fall to $1.37, and further to $1.33. Ultimately, while steady ETF buying and a tug-of-war with August's high-point sellers continue within the $1.43-$1.62 range, a breakthrough of $1.55 is expected to be the first signal for a resumption of the uptrend.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*