Ethereum Golden Cross Appears! If it surpasses $2,800, $3,050 opens up

▲ Ethereum (ETH) ©

Despite strong bullish factors such as a golden cross and institutional fund inflows, Ethereum (ETH) has failed to break the $2,800 barrier. While $689.8 million flowed into spot ETFs over a week and BitMine secured 4.9% of the supply, the US 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 5.26% has created a tense standoff between a bullish scenario targeting $3,050 and a bearish scenario potentially pushing it down to $2,400.

According to investment specialized media TradingNews on September 29 (local time), Ethereum rose 1.78% from the previous day to $2,714.11 and traded between $2,636.99 and $2,717.37 over 24 hours. Over the past 7 days, it fell 3.9%, underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 2.8% in the same period. However, a golden cross formed in August when the 50-day moving average (MA) at approximately $2,272 crossed above the 200-day moving average at approximately $2,076, with additional confirmation signals appearing this week. The key support zone is $2,544-$2,560, where the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 100-week EMA converge.

Institutional buying continues as well. BitMine Immersion Technologies additionally purchased 17,362 ETH last week, increasing its total holdings to 6,001,302 ETH. This accounts for 4.9% of the total supply of 122.1 million ETH, with a current value of approximately $16.08 billion. Notably, about 84% of its holdings are staked. US Ethereum spot ETFs also saw a net inflow of $689.8 million in the week leading up to September 25, reversing from a net outflow of $140.6 million the previous week. iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) absorbed $326.2 million, and Fidelity FETH absorbed $174.1 million, respectively.

The problem lies with the $2,800 resistance and the derivatives market. Ethereum rose to $2,786 on September 23 but failed to break $2,800, subsequently facing repeated resistance in the $2,750-$2,820 range. While holding $2,640, a Bull Flag structure remains valid, and if it breaks through $2,722 and $2,800 consecutively, $3,000-$3,050 is presented as the next target. Conversely, a drop below $2,600 would invalidate the bullish structure, opening up the possibility of a correction to $2,400, passing through $2,544-$2,560. Especially with long position liquidations reaching $392.23 million across the entire crypto market on September 28 and a sharp increase in Bitfinex's ETH short positions, conditions for a short squeeze have formed if $2,800 is breached.

The macroeconomic environment is the biggest variable limiting the upward trend. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.264%, and the 30-year yield to 5.589%, with the market pricing in about a 70% chance of another rate hike in October. TradingNews analyzed that given Ethereum's recent high correlation with the Nasdaq, if inflation and employment data come out strong and the 10-year yield surpasses 5.30%, $2,600 could break. Conversely, if Treasury yields fall to around 5.10%, conditions for breaking $2,800 could be met.

Furthermore, Ethereum's next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, is awaiting as a bullish catalyst. The Sepolia testnet implementation is scheduled for October 6, and the mainnet implementation for Q4 2026, including plans to expand the gas limit from approximately 60 million to 200 million. The media predicts that if a daily closing price forms above $2,800, there could be an upside potential of about 12.4% to $3,050, whereas if $2,600 breaks, it could fall by about 11.6% to $2,400. Ultimately, three variables—ETFs and BitMine's structural buying, short positions accumulated at $2,800, and Treasury yields—are expected to determine Ethereum's next direction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*