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▲ Strategy, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image ©
As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its struggle to break above $85,000, US spot Bitcoin ETF funds have turned to cumulative net inflows by 2026, and Strategy's additional purchase at $85,681 has made $91,800 the next key target. However, with daily ETF inflows plummeting by 87% in a week and spot demand weakening, the immediate focus is on whether it can break out of the $82,000-$87,500 range.
According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on September 29 (local time), Bitcoin rose 0.75% from the previous day to $84,253.88, moving between $82,581 and $85,017 over 24 hours. The daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) was 62, not entering the overbought zone, and the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are formed at $74,130-$77,586. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) histogram flattened, indicating a temporary slowdown in upward momentum rather than a reversal since the September 21 breakout.
Institutional funds remain a key variable supporting the bullish outlook. In the week leading up to September 25, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.39 billion, with iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) absorbing $1.16 billion of this. As a result, the cumulative ETF fund flow for 2026, which had once expanded to a net outflow of $5.8 billion, has now turned into a net inflow of $320 million. However, daily inflows decreased by 87% from $999 million at the beginning of the week to $134 million by the weekend, and then further dropped to $31.07 million on Monday. While the inflow streak continues, the buying intensity has rapidly weakened.
Corporate buying also continued. Strategy additionally purchased 1,665 Bitcoins for approximately $142.7 million between September 21-27, with an average purchase price of $85,681. Consequently, its total holdings increased to 847,666 BTC, and cumulative acquisition cost rose to approximately $63.95 billion. On the other hand, warning signs were detected on-chain. Santiment's Network Realized Profit/Loss surged to its highest level since December 2025 last week, and the 30-day cumulative spot demand recorded minus 180,000 BTC. The media analyzed that the recent rally largely depended on short squeezes and ETF inflows rather than natural spot accumulation.
Technically, $85,000 is the immediate watershed. If it surpasses this, $86,000, where the average acquisition cost of spot ETFs is located, and $87,000-$87,500, which has previously blocked two rallies, will become resistance levels in sequence. After that, $90,000 and the 50-week moving average of $91,800 are key targets. Conversely, if $82,000 breaks down, the possibility of a correction opens up to $80,000 and then to the 50-day EMA of $77,586. If this also breaks, the risk of returning to the $60,000-$80,000 range formed during the summer increases.
TradingNews presented a basic scenario for this week, with fluctuations in the $82,000-$87,500 range. If ETF net inflows expand again to over $200 million per session and the US 10-year Treasury yield drops to around 5.10%, there is a prospect that October could see a test of $91,800 after breaking $87,500 and then $90,000. Conversely, if the daily closing price forms below $82,000, then $77,586 becomes the next downside target. Ultimately, whether Bitcoin decisively surpasses $85,000 and whether the slowed ETF buying momentum revives are considered key variables that will determine the next direction.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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