Cardano (ADA) Falls Alone in 'Uptober' While Everyone Else Rises... Will It Break the Jinx This Time?

▲ Cardano (ADA), Cryptocurrency Decline/AI Generated Image

Cardano (ADA) has plummeted 68% over the past year and has not fully escaped its long-term slump. It is attempting a trend reversal through the so-called Uptober (October bull market), building on a three-month consecutive rebound. However, an analysis suggests that a past jinx of falling every October is holding it back.

According to U.Today, a virtual asset media outlet, on September 28 (local time), Cardano has plummeted 68% compared to a year ago, based on data compiled by cryptocurrency data platform CoinGecko. While it maintains a moderate upward trend in short-term periods (7, 14, 30 days), its long-term chart over a year shows a particularly significant loss among altcoins. Cardano was trapped in a long-term bear market from September 2025 to June 2026, recording negative candles for nine months, with the exception of April 2026.

This plunge was triggered by Cardano's vertical drop from $0.954 in September 2025 to $0.138 in June 2026. During this period, it broke below the 50-week moving average of $0.451 on a weekly basis, collapsing its long-term support base. However, if it successfully achieves a gradual rebound from July and closes September with a gain, it will mark three consecutive months of rising monthly candles.

While the broader virtual asset market typically expects October to be a bull market, Cardano's historical October performance shows the opposite trend. Cardano plummeted over 17% in October 2018 and only rose by 6.19% in October 2019. This was followed by declines of 8.27% in October 2020, 7% in October 2021, and 6.22% in October 2022. Although it rebounded by 15.35% in October 2023, it then fell by 8.82% in October 2024, followed by a massive 24.42% plunge in October 2025.

Looking at October returns over the past 8 years, there were only two years of gains and six years of negative returns. The macroeconomic calendar is also cited as a variable that could stimulate short-term volatility. With the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and non-farm employment figures scheduled, these could shake overall market sentiment in conjunction with the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy outlook.

Despite the bottom-out rebound over the past three months, the recurring bearish statistics for October are weighing on Cardano's potential for further gains. Market attention is focused on whether Cardano, which has plummeted 68% over the past year, can break its persistent October jinx and achieve a full trend reversal.

[Article Key Summary]

-Cardano (ADA) plummeted 68% over one year, falling from $0.954 to $0.138.

-Despite attempting a three-month consecutive rebound since July, a jinx of falling six times in historical Octobers has been identified.

-Amid expectations of an October bull market, concerns about additional volatility have grown ahead of major macroeconomic indicator releases.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*