Bitcoin holds at $84,000… So why is there a possibility of a sharp drop to $75,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), investors, crash/AI generated image ©

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding at the $84,000 level, but there is a possibility of a sharp correction down to $75,000 even if the bull market continues. Amidst movements to avoid risky assets due to rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar, the expiration of cryptocurrency options worth $18 billion, the largest in 2026, has emerged as a key variable to increase short-term volatility.

According to investment specialized media FXStreet on September 25 (local time), the cryptocurrency market recovered Wednesday's closing level with a market capitalization of $2.86 trillion, offsetting a 1.5% intraday decline on Thursday. The market hit a low in early July and has shown a bullish reversal trend since August, with analysis suggesting that significant corrections can occur during the early stages of a bull market. In the last 24 hours, Stellar (XLM) rose 8.4%, Chainlink (LINK) 8.2%, and Algorand (ALGO) 7.8%, while Uniswap (UNI) fell 2.1%, The Graph (GRT) 1.5%, and Tron (TRX) 1.4%.

Bitcoin stabilized around $84,000 during Friday's European trading hours, confirming support after falling to $83,000 the previous day. However, there is a lack of clear external drivers to lead a further rally. While the Nasdaq 100 index is near its peak, the uptrend is increasingly concentrated in a few stocks, and risk-averse movements are also appearing due to the rise in the dollar and Treasury yields. As a result, there is a risk that BTC could correct to $82,000 or below, and a drop to $75,000, where the 50-day moving average (MA) is located, could lead to significant volatility across the cryptocurrency market. However, FxPro assessed that even with a correction to this level, the bullish phase itself could be maintained.

The biggest short-term variable is the $18 billion worth of cryptocurrency options expiring today. This is the largest volume for 2026, with Bitcoin options totaling 184,000 contracts, amounting to $15.9 billion. Funds are most concentrated at $85,000, and the Max Pain price is approximately $75,000. However, it is explained that the Max Pain price is merely a reference indicator, and there is no guarantee that the actual price will move to that level, so price movements after option expiration should be closely monitored.

In terms of supply and demand, Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have attracted $4.6 billion in the past month, offsetting all outflows that occurred since the beginning of the year. A Bitwise survey found that institutional cryptocurrency holders did not sell Bitcoin even during bear markets but rather increased their digital asset holdings. In contrast, Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone questioned whether $60,000 is the definitive bottom of this Bitcoin cycle, citing competition for investment funds between stocks and US Treasury bonds.

Meanwhile, BlackRock is set to launch a tokenized investment portfolio in partnership with Ondo Finance. These assets are designed for 24-hour trading and accessibility for non-US investors. A survey by Visa and Morning Consult showed that only 36% of Americans were willing to use stablecoins, but this percentage rose to 56% if banks provided fraud protection and stablecoin deposit insurance.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*