SpaceX Stock Outlook…SPCX Aims for $165 if it breaks $155

▲ SpaceX (SPCX), Nasdaq, IPO/AI-generated image ©

SpaceX (SPCX) is showing technical rebound signals ahead of breaking the $155 mark, but the large-scale lock-up expiration continuing until the end of the year has emerged as the biggest variable for its upward trend. If it holds the $150.98 support level and breaks $155, the next target is set at $165.24.

According to cryptocurrency specialized media Watcher.Guru on September 25 (local time), SpaceX stock closed down 4.11% at $148.36 on Wednesday, then slightly rebounded to $148.80 in after-hours trading. It approached $155 at one point this month but failed to settle. Trading volume was approximately 81.4 million shares, below the average of 95.5 million shares, and market capitalization remained above $2 trillion. The stock has rebounded approximately 44% since its August low.

The key is the potential increase in stock supply due to lock-up expirations. Following the start of expirations on September 24, up to 328.4 million shares are scheduled to be released on October 9, with an additional 328.4 million shares on October 24. After the Q3 earnings announcement, up to 1.3 billion shares will be released, and approximately 800 million shares on December 8. In contrast, Elon Musk's approximately 48.4% stake in the company remains under lock-up until June 12, 2027.

Avery Marquez, Director of Investment Strategy at Renaissance Capital, described this lock-up structure as the most complex she has ever seen. The media explained that while lock-up expiration does not necessarily lead to massive selling, the increased volume of tradable shares in the market could hinder the breakthrough of $155.

Technically, on the 4-hour chart, SPCX is at $151.83, above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of $150.98. The short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is $150.11, higher than the mid-term EMA of $145.62 and the long-term EMA of $144.86, indicating a bullish alignment. Lows have also consistently risen since $133.34. If it holds $150.98 and breaks through $153-$155, $165.24 becomes the next target, with potential for it to open up to $179.49 thereafter. Conversely, if $150.98 is broken, $144.86-$145.62 is the next support zone, and in case of further decline, $133.34 is presented as a major support level.

The $150.98 support level has been maintained for three consecutive weeks based on weekly closing prices. However, Watcher.Guru pointed out that the lock-up expiration schedule continuing until December is a key variable that will determine whether it actually breaks $155. Moving forward, the key questions are whether it can hold $150.98 even after the earnings announcement on November 3 and whether the upward trend towards $165 will continue.

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