Bitcoin (BTC) Surges Alone Amid Soaring Treasury Yields...Benjamin Cowen: "Strange Things"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Despite macroeconomic headwinds such as soaring Treasury yields and stock market stagnation, Bitcoin achieved a solo upward breakout, completely nullifying the predictions of pessimists.

According to crypto media outlet Benzinga on September 24 (local time), market analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that Bitcoin (BTC)'s current surge looks like "the Upside Down" from the drama Stranger Things. He noted that while rising oil prices caused the US 10-year Treasury yield to soar to 5.1% annually and the 2-year Treasury yield also surged by 0.2 percentage points in a single day to reach 4.9% annually, Bitcoin alone is staging a rally in the opposite direction. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) benchmark interest rate remaining around 4% annually, rising Treasury yields and a strong dollar have put strong pressure on the stock and commodity markets.

As a result of the deteriorating macro environment, the S&P 500 index stopped rising after peaking in mid-August, and gold and silver prices also performed poorly as expected. Unlike traditional assets that conformed to his macro analytical framework, only Bitcoin showed a sharp upward trend. Cowen compared this trend to the golden cross phases of 2019 and 2023, which led to rallies after crashes, and pointed out that Bitcoin succeeded in settling above the 50-week moving average, which it failed to do during the 2015 bear market.

Cowen admitted, "Previously, I had given a low probability of 35% for Bitcoin forming a bottom, but as the price surpassed its May high, the pendulum swung in favor of the bulls." He stated, "The market doesn't necessarily have to make sense," indicating his stance to prioritize actual market price movements over traditional macroeconomic perspectives. He explained that unlike the warning signs from Treasury yields, the dollar index, and the stock and gold markets, the price structure itself points upwards.

The key indicator for future trends is whether the weekly closing price settles. The more weekly closes above the May high, the more confidence there is in a confirmed bottom, but if it falls below $83,000, there is also a prediction that it could enter a correction phase in the fourth quarter. The analysis suggests monitoring the weekly close to avoid variables like the failed breakout in the silver market in 2012.

[Article Key Summary]

-Benjamin Cowen diagnosed that despite rising Treasury yields and a strong dollar causing stocks and gold to falter, only Bitcoin staged an upward breakout.

-As Bitcoin surpassed the 50-week moving average and its May high, previous macroeconomic bearish arguments were disproven, and bullish sentiment gained strength.

-The key to a further rally is the weekly close, and if the $83,000 level cannot be defended, a Q4 pullback may occur.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*