Bitcoin breaks below $84,000... US Treasury yields hit 19-year high, will it fall further?

▲ Dollar (USD), Bitcoin (BTC) ©

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $84,000 as the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note soared to a 19-year high. With the possibility of an additional interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in October exceeding 70%, Bitcoin is facing dual pressure from rising interest rates and a strong dollar.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 24 (local time), Bitcoin dropped to $83,200 during Asian trading hours that day. The US 10-year Treasury yield, which had closed at 5.11% from 4.96% the previous day, surged to 5.13% during intraday trading, marking its highest level since 2007. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) analyzed that strong US business activity indicators and rising oil prices partly influenced the bond sell-off.

Rising Treasury yields are burdening risk assets. This is because higher bond yields increase the investment appeal of government bonds while also raising borrowing costs. James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst at Forex.com, stated that BTC is holding up relatively well even amid strong interest rates and a strong dollar, suggesting $82,833 as the next price level to watch if the correction deepens. The US Treasury plans to purchase up to $6 billion in Treasury bonds with remaining maturities of approximately 20-30 years as part of a program to improve liquidity in the long-term bond market.

The possibility of an additional interest rate hike by the Fed in October is also adding pressure on Bitcoin. Bas Kooijman, CEO of DHF Capital, stated that expectations for further tightening have increased due to strong US business activity and high energy prices, and the market is now reflecting a higher probability of an October rate hike, from about 55% the previous day to about 70%. CME FedWatch indicated a 75.3% probability of the benchmark interest rate being raised to 4.00-4.25% at the October 28 meeting. Analysis suggests that even before an actual hike, if economic indicators further push up Treasury yields and the dollar, BTC could come under pressure.

However, seasonal trends are changing from the past. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin fell for five consecutive Septembers from 2017 to 2021, and its all-time average September return is -2.34%, the lowest among all months. However, it closed higher for three consecutive Septembers from 2023 to 2025, and has risen 7.35% so far this September. In contrast, October, often referred to as 'Uptober,' recorded an average gain of 19.92%, but last year it fell by 3.69%, indicating an absence of seasonal bullishness.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*