Bitcoin (BTC) Rides the 'Economic Cycle' Instead of Halving?..."Premature Judgment of the Peak is Forbidden"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Cryptocurrency Mining/AI Generated Image

The virtual asset market has entered an unprecedented bull market, moving beyond the halving effect and aligning with the expansion phase of the real economic cycle. An analysis suggests that a structural boom cycle surpassing the 1990s dot-com boom will unfold, driven by the simultaneous expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, tokenization of real assets, and the dominance of dollar stablecoins in payment networks.

Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency-focused YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, analyzed in a video uploaded on September 22 (local time) that "the virtual asset market accompanies the economic cycle, not the halving." Gambardello emphasized that "manufacturing indicators, which had been stuck below the 50-mark for a long time, have escaped the bottom, making the expansion of the economic cycle visible," adding, "We have entered the only cycle in history where investment, productivity, and technology adoption simultaneously point in the same direction."

The elevation of virtual assets from mere speculative objects to global financial infrastructure itself was also cited as a key factor. Gambardello pointed out that "in the 1990s, stock assets rode the productivity revolution of the internet, but in this cycle, the technological infrastructure and asset class itself align with virtual assets." He explained that with the support of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s tokenization regulatory guidelines, the on-chain transition of traditional financial assets is accelerating, and as stablecoins replace global payment networks, real economic activity is exploding on the blockchain.

The macroeconomic environment also shows a clear difference from past bull markets. Gambardello diagnosed that "past virtual asset rallies always had to contend with central bank tightening risks or macroeconomic headwinds," adding, "This cycle is likely to be long-lasting, buoyed by the strong tailwinds of interest rate cuts and liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed)." He predicted that the virtual asset market, which has consolidated its base through a long correction while stocks and gold rallied first, will be the biggest beneficiary.

Gambardello urged investors to be wary of the mistake of prematurely predicting the peak, trapped by past short-term cycle perspectives. He added, "The sell-off timing and upper limit formulas learned from the 2018 or 2021 cycles could become completely meaningless in this structural expansion market," and "As unprecedented institutional capital and liquidity flow in, a long-term, data-driven perspective must be maintained."

[Key Article Summary]

-Dan Gambardello assessed that the virtual asset market has entered a major bull market surpassing the 1990s dot-com boom, aligning with the expansion of the economic cycle.

-The expansion of AI infrastructure, tokenization of real assets, and the spread of stablecoins are accompanying the establishment of virtual assets as a global financial payment network.

-It was emphasized that investors should not be trapped by past bear market experiences and prematurely conclude the peak, but rather focus on the long-term scale of capital inflow.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*