Has the Bitcoin Bear Market Ended? The Signal Sent by Reclaiming All Four Major Moving Averages

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Godasol

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a different trend from past bear markets, having reclaimed its 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages. In previous cycles, the simultaneous recovery of these four major moving averages always occurred after the market bottom had formed. This makes the recent 54% correction noteworthy as a signal that, unlike in the past, the bottom may have already been passed.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 22 (local time), crypto research firm K33 analyzed that Bitcoin has broken above its 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages. K33 explained that whenever such a trend appeared before 2026, Bitcoin had already formed the bottom of its respective cycle, followed by strong upward momentum. Currently, Bitcoin is 32% lower than its all-time high of $126,296 recorded on October 6 last year, but the maximum drawdown in this downtrend was 54%, which was smaller than past bear markets.

Differences from past cycles were also prominent. Major downturns in 2013, 2017, and 2021 lasted for 363-407 days each, recording drawdowns of 77.5-85% from their peaks. In contrast, this correction rebounded at 54%. The time it took for 50% of the total Bitcoin supply to enter a loss state was also shorter than in previous market downturns. K33 assessed that recent derivatives positioning and market sentiment also show no significant signals pointing to further downside risk in the short term.

Changes were also observed in institutional demand. For the first time since January, Bitcoin surpassed the average purchase price of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors, and the period it remained below the ETF average purchase price was the longest ever at 236 days. Immediately after the breakout, on Monday, over 14,000 Bitcoins flowed into Bitcoin Exchange Traded Products (ETPs). K33 evaluated the recent movement of ETF investors, who added Bitcoin rather than withdrawing funds near the average purchase price, as a positive signal.

This is also a different trend from last May. At that time, Bitcoin approached the ETF average purchase price but failed to break through, and subsequently, 127,900 units flowed out of ETFs over seven weeks, marking the worst outflow period on record. This time, while remaining near the ETF average purchase price for about four weeks, no large-scale selling occurred, and fund flows maintained a slight net inflow before rapidly expanding after the price breakout. Net inflows occurred in 63% of the recent 30 trading days, but the total holdings of Bitcoin ETPs are still about 99,000 units less than the previous peak.

Market activity also expanded. Bitcoin's average daily spot trading volume increased from $2.6 billion to $3.5 billion last week, 7-day volatility approached a monthly high at 3.5%, and 30-day volatility was 2.2%. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index rose to 78, entering the 'Extreme Greed' zone for the first time since 2025. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $86,400, up 0.7% from 24 hours ago.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*