Will Ethereum Hit $3,000 and Plummet? What's the Next Phase According to Elliott Wave?

▲ Ethereum (ETH)/ChatGPT generated image ©

Ethereum (ETH) is entering the final upward phase according to Elliott Wave theory, targeting $3,000 in the short term, but there is also a possibility of a large-scale correction, pushing it down to the $1,900-$2,000 range after the rally concludes.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 22 (local time), Ethereum is continuing a five-wave upward structure that began at its July low. The third wave target range presented in previous analyses was $2,575-$2,755, and Ethereum indeed rose to $2,661 on September 11. Subsequently, it retraced to a consolidation range of $2,360-$2,520, forming a Bull Flag, which it broke upwards last week. The current analysis suggests that it is now in the fifth wave, which is expected to be the final segment of this impulsive upward movement.

The short-term target is approximately $3,000. Both the measured target based on the upward magnitude and the impulsive wave forecast point to around $3,000, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded 68.29. The price is also above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), indicating that the technical trend remains bullish. However, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, its upward momentum is slowing, and there is a possibility of bearish divergence between price and indicator. This pattern is explained as one that can be observed when a fifth wave rally follows a fourth wave correction.

The key price to maintain the bullish scenario is $2,480. The media identified $2,661, $2,564, $2,480, $2,427, and $2,358 as price levels to watch in order. Particularly, as long as $2,480 is held, the upward path towards $3,000 is likely to be maintained. Conversely, a drop below $2,427-$2,358 could signal the end of the current five-wave rally, potentially leading to a retracement within a ±$100 range around $1,900 during a subsequent second-wave correction.

The long-term bullish outlook itself remains intact. Ethereum has undergone a complex four-wave correction over approximately five years, forming a multi-year bull flag or triangular structure, and the monthly RSI has again moved out of the 'low-risk buying zone' that appeared at previous major cycle turning points. Analysts believe that if the current five-wave rally, which began at the July 1 low, concludes in the early $3,000s, it would confirm that a significant bottom has already formed.

Long-term, a primary target price of at least $6,250 has been suggested for the fifth wave. However, to confirm a sustained long-term breakout, the price must exceed $5,000, and a retreat back to around $4,100 after a breakout could be a strong warning signal for the bullish scenario. Therefore, in the short term, the key factors are whether $2,480 holds and the possibility of reaching $3,000. Subsequently, whether the next upward wave towards a new all-time high begins after a larger correction will be crucial for the medium to long-term trend.

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