Ripple (XRP) Spot ETF Attracts $1.68 Billion... Will it Break Through the $1.54 Resistance and Fire a Salvo?

XRP ETF Attracts $1.68 Billion... Why Did Futures-Based Products Collapse More Significantly?

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The ETF market related to XRP (Ripple) is growing rapidly, but even tracking the same asset, returns varied significantly depending on the product structure. The XRP spot ETF has attracted $1.68 billion since its launch without a single day of net outflow, while the futures-based product XRPI has fallen by 58.80% over the past year, underperforming XRP's own decline of approximately 51%.

According to investment news outlet TradingNews on September 22 (local time), XRP traded at $1.5176, up 5.30% over 24 hours, fluctuating between $1.5062 and $1.5398 during the day. Trading volume was $6.12 billion. Amid the upward trend, the Rex-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) rose 7.79% to $12.06, while 2x leveraged products XXRP, XRPT, and UXRP surged by 15.35%, 16.30%, and 16.27% respectively. XRP is retesting the $1.49-$1.54 resistance zone, which has repeatedly prevented its rise since August.

The performance differences by ETF structure were clear. Volatility Shares' XRPI is a product that does not directly hold XRP but utilizes XRP futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), with a total expense ratio of 1.68%. Its total return over the past year was -58.80%, underperforming XRP's approximately 51% decline over the same period by about 8 percentage points. The media explained that in addition to high costs, roll costs incurred during the process of replacing expiring futures dragged down returns. In contrast, XRPR invests at least 80% of its net assets directly in XRP or through subsidiaries, and its expense ratio is lower at 0.75%, closely tracking price movements, rising 7.79% when XRP recently gained about 8%.

Fund flows into US XRP spot ETFs were relatively stable. Since their launch in November 2025, cumulative net inflows have reached approximately $1.68 billion, and net assets have grown to $1.48 billion, with not a single trading day recording net outflows. Bitwise products lead with over $600 million in cumulative inflows, followed by Canary Capital's XRPC with $483 million and Franklin Templeton's XRPZ with $462.86 million. However, the net assets of XRP spot ETFs account for only about 1.3% of the total market capitalization, lower than Bitcoin spot ETFs' 6.3% market penetration. This year's maximum daily inflow for XRP spot ETFs was also $46.1 million, about 1/21st of the $998.95 million that flowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs on September 21.

In terms of price, breaking above $1.54 is key. If XRP surpasses $1.54 on a daily closing basis, $1.60, where approximately 1.99 billion units of past trading volume were concentrated, is set as the first target, followed by the August high of $1.6950 as the next resistance. Around $1.86, approximately 3.47 billion units of past trading volume are concentrated, and a breakthrough there could open a path to $2.19, according to analysis. Conversely, if $1.49 breaks down, $1.40, and then $1.32-$1.38 are presented as key support zones.

The media assessed that the product structure itself is a crucial variable determining returns in the XRP ETF market. Spot products that directly hold XRP were categorized as long-term holding vehicles, while futures-based XRPI was classified as a trading product considering high fees and roll costs. Leveraged ETFs are also designed to amplify daily returns, and their value can decrease if volatility repeats over a long period, it explained. For XRP's price itself, a daily closing price break above $1.54 is the confirmation criterion for an uptrend, and upon a breakthrough, $1.60 and $1.6950 are presented as the next targets.

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