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Despite $1.68 billion in ETF inflows, XRP faces a '$1.54 wall'... if broken, $1.69 opens up
▲ XRP/AI generated image ©
XRP (Ripple) is attempting to break through the $1.54 resistance level, having surged 5.30% over the past 24 hours. Although the US spot XRP ETF has accumulated $1.68 billion in inflows since its launch without a single day of net outflows, whether XRP can break above the $1.49-$1.54 range, which it has failed to surpass for several months, on a closing basis is considered a key turning point for further upside.
According to investment media outlet TradingNews on September 22 (local time), XRP was trading at $1.5176, up 5.30% over 24 hours. Intraday prices ranged from $1.5062 to $1.5398, with a trading volume of $6.12 billion. Its 7-day increase was 6.70%, falling short of the broader cryptocurrency market's 10.00% rise during the same period. The outlet analyzed that the $1.49-$1.54 range has repeatedly acted as a key resistance zone since August, and if the daily closing price surpasses $1.54, then $1.60 and $1.6950 could become target price levels, respectively.
Institutional funds were identified as a major factor supporting XRP's price floor. Since its launch in November 2025, the US spot XRP ETF has recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately $1.68 billion, with net assets reaching about $1.48 billion. Notably, there has not been a single trading day of net outflows since its inception. Bitwise's product holds over 362 million XRP, worth $507.5 million, followed by Canary Capital's XRPC and Franklin Templeton's XRPZ, holding $483 million and $462.86 million respectively. However, the net assets of the XRP spot ETF represent about 1.3% of the total market capitalization, a smaller proportion than Bitcoin spot ETFs' 6.3%, leading to the assessment that the scale of ETF inflows alone is still limited to break the $1.54 mark.
On-chain supply and demand showed mixed signals. Large holders accumulated an additional approximately 1.54 billion XRP during the recent price increase, valued at about $2.2 billion at current prices. Conversely, data also showed some volume moving to exchanges, suggesting the possibility of simultaneous selling preparations. Additionally, Ripple net supplies about 300 million XRP each month by releasing 1 billion XRP from escrow and re-locking approximately 700 million. This amounts to about $455 million at current prices. Conversely, approximately 975 million XRP are held in the spot XRP ETF at current prices, which helps reduce the circulating supply on exchanges.
The key to the price movement is $1.54. If XRP breaks this price on a daily closing basis, $1.60, where approximately 1.99 billion XRP were previously traded, becomes the first target, followed by the August high of $1.6950 as the next resistance level. Around $1.86, approximately 3.47 billion XRP in past trading volume is concentrated, making it the thickest resistance zone in the medium term. Conversely, if it fails to hold $1.49, $1.40 becomes the next support level, and if it falls below $1.35, the correction range could extend to the recent monthly low of $1.2516.
TradingNews suggested $1.60 as the first target if XRP breaks $1.54 on a daily closing basis in the short term (1-2 weeks). For the 2-6 week outlook, it presented the possibility of a rise to $1.6950 if ETF fund inflows expand or if there's a rotation of funds from Bitcoin to altcoins, and if $1.86 is surpassed, there could be further upside to $2.19. However, if it fails to break $1.54, the $1.40-$1.54 range-bound movement could continue, and a daily close below $1.40 was presented as a criterion that would invalidate the bullish outlook.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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