Ethereum Surges 15%, Nearing $2,800 Resistance Wall... Can It Break Through?

▲ Ethereum (ETH) ©

Ethereum (ETH), which has sharply rebounded by over 15% in the past week, is testing its direction as it approaches a breakthrough of the $2,800 mark, currently blocked by a massive liquidation wall.

According to the investment media TradingNews on September 22 (local time), Ethereum rose to $2,775.96 during intraday trading, showing a sharp rebound from its previous low. Although the $2,400 level had broken due to the failure of the CLARITY Act, a bill concerning the US cryptocurrency market structure, in the US Senate and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, institutional capital inflow combined with a short squeeze (buying pressure occurring to liquidate or cover short positions) in the derivatives market led to an immediate rebound. In particular, as Bitcoin (BTC) broke the $87,000 mark and led the rally, highly volatile Ethereum also absorbed risk-asset preference sentiment, showing a concurrent upward trend.

The key driving force behind the rebound is the massive inflow of institutional funds. On September 21 alone, a total of $270 million in net inflows was recorded for US Ethereum spot ETFs, with $110 million, or 41% of the total, concentrated in BlackRock's ETHA single product. This brought the cumulative net inflow for US Ethereum spot ETFs to $13.25 billion. Furthermore, institutional demand to lock up spot supply long-term is also being confirmed, such as Bitmain Immersion Technologies, which is purchasing cryptocurrencies as part of its corporate financial strategy, buying an additional $74 million worth of Ethereum, increasing its holdings to 5.98 million units.

The futures market is also showing overheating, weighing whether to break through the upper resistance line. Ethereum futures trading volume surged by 67.53% to $63.88 billion, and open interest increased by 8.21% to $36.47 billion. The funding rate remains stable at 0.0089% without excessive long position bias, and technical indicators have improved with a golden cross occurring amidst major exponential moving averages being in direct alignment. Additionally, anticipation for the Glamsterdam hard fork, scheduled for the Sepolia testnet deployment on September 28, is also acting as a mid-term positive catalyst.

However, a large volume of short position liquidations is concentrated between $2,730 and $2,800, making short-term profit-taking pressure a cautionary factor. The amount of inflow into exchanges is increasing again, and the ETH/BTC ratio, which indicates the relative proportion of Ethereum to Bitcoin, remains at 0.0320, meaning it has not yet secured independent market leadership. Technically, to reach the target price of $3,520, which is the flag pattern completed on the 21st, Ethereum must first decisively break above $2,800 based on the daily closing price.

Experts predicted that if Ethereum breaks above $2,800 based on the daily closing price, the short-term uptrend could continue to $2,920 and $3,000. Conversely, if selling pressure fails to be absorbed near the $2,786 resistance level, a healthy retracement to $2,650-$2,672 could occur, and if the $2,614 support level breaks, the rebound trend would be invalidated, with a risk of falling to $2,546.

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