Nvidia or SpaceX…A Head-to-Head Showdown Between '$5.2 Trillion Performance' and 'Space AI'

▲ Nvidia or SpaceX…A Head-to-Head Showdown Between '$5.2 Trillion Performance' and 'Space AI' / AI-generated image

Nvidia and SpaceX, at the center of the artificial intelligence (AI) investment frenzy, are demanding investors' choices with completely different growth formulas. While Nvidia boasts actual profits and a dominant AI semiconductor business, SpaceX is evaluated as offering much greater growth potential in AI hosting and space computing, but with correspondingly higher risks.

According to cryptocurrency media Watcher.Guru on September 19 (local time), Nvidia's market capitalization is approximately $5.2 trillion, with its stock price around $212 and a trailing price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of approximately 27.6x. In contrast, SpaceX, which completed its initial public offering (IPO) in June, was valued at approximately $2 trillion, with its stock trading between $148 and $151. It showed high volatility, exceeding $200 during the summer before falling below its IPO price of $135. Notably, SpaceX is currently valued at about 40-45 times its revenue, indicating that a significant premium is reflected in its future AI and space business growth rather than its current performance.

Nvidia's strength lies in the already materialized demand for AI semiconductors. From Blackwell to the next-generation Vera Rubin platform, it has secured a near-monopoly status in the chip market leading the AI boom, with Vera Rubin being supplied to Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and Meta. Watcher.Guru reported that Nvidia is considered a relatively stable choice among the two AI companies, given its increasing actual profits based on high margins and steady demand. However, it was explained that there might be limitations to further growth potential given the already massive size of the company.

SpaceX, conversely, places its weight on future growth potential. Last September, it signed an AI hosting contract worth $13 billion annually, and according to Wall Street forecasts cited by Barron's, its revenue is expected to reach approximately $100 billion by 2027. Of this, $60 billion is estimated to come solely from its AI business. Furthermore, its weighting within the Nasdaq 100 is set to more than double this month. Nvidia also currently holds about $21 billion worth of SpaceX shares, indicating intertwined interests between the two companies.

The next stage envisioned by both companies is 'Space AI'. Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, expressed strong confidence that Nvidia's VR NLV72 AI computer would be launched into space, and Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, also stated, 'The final frontier of space computing has arrived.' Bret Johnsen, CFO of SpaceX, also said that the new AI hosting contract has further strengthened management's conviction.

Based purely on current figures, the media's analysis is that Nvidia's strengths are consistent performance and relatively low risk, whereas SpaceX has a greater potential for rapid growth from a smaller AI revenue base, but also higher uncertainty. In particular, SpaceX's long-term growth scenario heavily depends on the cost structure of Starship and whether the Starmind satellites will operate as planned after 2027. Ultimately, the competition between the two companies boils down to a showdown over which market — the already highly profitable AI semiconductor business or the still-materializing AI hosting and space computing market — will unleash greater growth potential.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*