Coindesk analyzed that as the U.S. Federal Reserve resumed tightening after about three years by raising the benchmark interest rate, the Bitcoin market is replicating a crisis pattern similar to the early stages of the 2022 bear market, characterized by a Dead Cat Bounce. At the time of the first rate hike in March 2022, BTC had plummeted 40% from its previous high ($69,000), and after a surprising 18% surge for 12 days immediately after the hike, it entered a major bear market with an immediate additional 50% plunge. Currently, BTC has also fallen 40% from its all-time high ($126,000), suggesting a high possibility of a second major plunge following a short-term surprise rebound. Amid macroeconomic headwinds such as oil prices breaking $100 and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield entering 5%, the market is reflecting an additional 75 basis points hike over the next six months. As there have been no single-instance rate hikes since 1955, market tension is escalating over whether Bitcoin will fall into a 2022-style long-term bear market after a short-term rebound illusion.
