Solana (SOL), Sell Wall and ETF Inflow Depletion...120-Dollar Rally 'Stalls'

▲ Solana (SOL), ETF/AI Generated Image

An analysis suggests that Solana (SOL) must first overcome two obstacles – a $110 sell wall and dwindling ETF funds – to reach $120.

According to 24/7 Wall Street on September 15 (local time), Solana needs an additional 18.6% surge to reach $120 by the end of September. The first resistance level is $105, followed by $110, $115, and $118.84. Specifically, $110 has been a key sell wall that has repeatedly prevented upward movement since August 27.

The biggest concern is the slowdown in fund inflows into Solana spot ETFs. The net assets of nine Solana spot ETFs total $1.41 billion. Weekly net inflows plummeted by 96%, from $153.87 million in the week ending August 28 to $6.18 million the following week. The media analyzed that weekly net inflows must exceed $100 million again to gain momentum for an ascent towards $120.

Macroeconomics and Bitcoin (BTC) trends are also variables. The media explained that Solana failed to maintain an independent strong breakout trend during this cycle while Bitcoin remained below $80,000. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) September interest rate decision was also presented as a variable that will determine demand for risky assets. The analysis suggests that if interest rates rise, the attractiveness of assets that pay returns increases, which could be a burden for risky assets like Solana.

Network upgrades are a variable on the other side. Transaction V1 is designed to process complex transactions utilizing zero-knowledge proofs and multi-signatures by increasing the transaction size limit by 3.3 times. Alpenglow will begin activating features from September 28, with full mainnet application scheduled for October. However, the media pointed out that expanding network processing capacity alone does not automatically lead to new buying demand.

Market expectations still lean more towards a decline than breaking $120. Polymarket reflected a 20% probability of Solana reaching $120 in September, while assessing a 29% chance of falling to $90. Total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) also decreased from $11.5 billion to $5.5 billion, and a new supply of 263,000 SOL occurs daily. 24/7 Wall Street analyzed that the recovery of ETF funds, Bitcoin breaking $80,000, and Solana stabilizing at $110 are key conditions for challenging $120.

[Article Key Summary]

-Solana needs to break through the $110 sell wall and gain an additional 18.6% to reach $120 by the end of September.

-Weekly net inflows into Solana spot ETFs plummeted by 96%, from $153.87 million to $6.18 million.

-Polymarket reflected a 20% chance of reaching $120 and a 29% chance of falling to $90.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*