Bitcoin (BTC), Bullish Pattern Signal... "Caution Against FOMO Buying"

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Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC) is forming a bullish pattern, but a warning has been issued that premature follow-up buying is risky ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision.

According to Benzinga on September 15 (local time), macro analyst Mike McGlone analyzed in a panel discussion on The Wolf of All Streets that a bull flag appeared on the Bitcoin chart after forming a bottom. However, he warned that Bitcoin is struggling to break through the 50-week moving average, stating, “We should be very cautious.” He added that if the weekly candle closes above the 50-week moving average, he would re-evaluate his current assessment, but until then, he would maintain a cautious stance.

McGlone pointed out that while the current Bitcoin chart looks positive, one should recall gold in Q1 2013. He explained that gold's technical trend also looked strong then but subsequently plunged by 50%. Conversely, macro investor Jordi Visser countered by stating that Bitcoin held its ground around $78,000 for three consecutive weeks. He argued that it is difficult to see this as a bearish signal, given that Bitcoin held up while oil prices surged and gold and stocks declined during the same period.

The Fed's interest rate decision has also emerged as a key variable. Jim Bianco assessed that Polymarket reflects an approximately 80% chance of a September rate hike, and CME FedWatch over 90%, making the Fed's message more critical than the rate hike itself. He analyzed that if the Fed acknowledges progress in inflation and explains a rate hike as a precautionary measure, it could stabilize the bond market. However, if it hints at further tightening, strong pressure could be exerted on risky assets.

Bianco also noted that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 130 basis points since the Fed's first rate cut in September 2024. He stated that such a movement has not occurred after the Fed's first rate cut in the past 60 years, diagnosing that the bond market is sending a strong warning about monetary policy.

The variables that will determine Bitcoin's direction this week are the cloture vote on the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill and the Fed's interest rate decision. The panel analyzed that if a hawkish rate hike and the failure of the bill's vote occur simultaneously, McGlone's bearish outlook would be tested. Conversely, if a dovish rate hike and unexpected progress on the bill coincide, Visser's bullish outlook could gain momentum.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin formed a bull flag, but whether it breaks the 50-week moving average was identified as a key gateway for continued bullishness.

-McGlone cited the 50% crash of gold in 2013 and cautioned against FOMO buying ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision.

-The vote on the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill and the Fed's policy message were cited as key variables that will dictate Bitcoin's direction this week.

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