Global investment bank TD Cowen projected a 60% probability that the Senate's Clarity Act cloture vote (determining whether the bill proceeds to a full floor debate) would fail. According to The Block, scenarios other than rejection presented by TD Cowen include: △the cloture vote passing while allowing Democrats to submit an alternative in the form of an amendment (20%) △postponing bill discussions until after the election (15%) △the bill passing before the election (5%). TD Cowen stated, "We are closely watching how Republicans respond to the Democratic alternative proposal regarding ethics rules related to President Donald Trump's family. Additionally, the stance of moderate Democratic senators is a key variable. We are particularly focused on the position of Senator Mark Warner."
