Upbit's 'Half-Baked Bull Market' Warning Light... CLARITY Act and Fed's '48 Hours of Destiny'

Upbit: Coins are rising, but trading volume couldn't even exceed 2 trillion won... 'Half-baked rebound' caution

▲ Upbit, Bitcoin, XRP ©

While arguments for slowing down artificial intelligence (AI) development triggered a sharp drop in semiconductor stocks in the New York stock market, the domestic virtual asset market showed the opposite trend. Top market cap coins like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP (Ripple) all rebounded, and some altcoins recorded double-digit growth rates. However, Upbit's 24-hour trading volume actually decreased, falling below 2 trillion won, indicating limited follow-up buying from domestic investors despite the price increase.

According to Upbit at 7:32 AM on September 15, Bitcoin was trading at 105,922,000 won, up 1.34% from the previous day. Ethereum rose 1.60% to 3,426,000 won, and major coins, including XRP, also showed an upward trend. Upbit Datalab's composite index rose 1.33% to 10,816.82 as of 7:30 AM, the altcoin index rose 2.27% to 2,944.26, and the Upbit10 index rose 2.14% to 2,750.68. The Ethereum Group and Bitcoin Group also rose 1.72% and 1.36%, respectively.

In altcoins, selective surges were even more pronounced. Based on weekly growth rates, Lisk recorded the highest increase at 205.84%, followed by Ark at 53.85%, VTHO Token at 53.26%, Civic at 51.92%, and CAP at 34.38%. On the same day, in the KRW market, CAP rose 32.81%, Clearpool 32.97%, Ark 25.26%, and Metal 18.13%. However, despite the upward trend, trading volume did not recover. As of 7:33 AM, Upbit Datalab reported a 24-hour trading volume of 1.86 trillion won, a 13.82% decrease from 24 hours prior, with the daily trading volume reaching only 1.77 trillion won. XRP accounted for the largest share of trading volume at 13.17%, followed by Lisk at 5.27%, Tether at 5.04%, Bitcoin at 4.89%, and Ethereum at 4.84%.

The rebound in virtual assets diverged from the risk-off trend in the U.S. stock market. On September 14, in the New York stock market, Nvidia fell 3.36% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 5.86% as arguments for slowing down AI technology development gained prominence. Major semiconductor stocks such as Broadcom, AMD, and Micron also fell. In contrast, in the cryptocurrency market, expectations for easing regulatory uncertainty emerged ahead of the cloture vote on the U.S. Senate's U.S. Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill, the CLARITY Act, scheduled for September 15. 60 votes are required for cloture in the Senate, and the recently unveiled bill includes amendments reflecting demands from the Democratic Party.

The biggest turning points for the market this week are the CLARITY Act vote and the Fed. If the CLARITY Act passes its first procedural hurdle, expectations for establishing a U.S. virtual asset regulatory framework could continue, but disagreements between politicians and the banking sector regarding the current bill remain, making it difficult to be overly optimistic about the outcome. Subsequently, the Fed will hold a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting from September 15-16 and announce its interest rate decision on September 16. In particular, the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields and concerns about interest rate hikes are burdening risk assets, making the Fed's decision and future policy signals highly likely to determine whether virtual assets will see further gains.

In the domestic market, the key is whether trading volume recovers rather than just prices. Even though major coins and altcoin indices all rose, Upbit's 24-hour trading volume decreased by 13.82%, falling below 2 trillion won. Although XRP specifically topped the trading share at 13.17% and some altcoins surged by 20-30%, the trading volume is limited to consider buying momentum broadly spread across the entire market. Whether the bullish trend of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP continues, and if trading volume also recovers after the CLARITY Act vote and the Fed meeting, will be a critical variable determining the direction of the domestic virtual asset market this week.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*