SpaceX (SPCX), Awaiting Starship's 14th Launch and Nasdaq Rebalancing... Will it Defend $140?

▲ SpaceX (SPCX)/AI Generated Image

SpaceX (SPCX) is facing a test to defend the $140 mark this week, as its Starship launch, Nasdaq rebalancing, and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision coincide.

According to Coingape on September 13 (local time), there are three key variables that will move SpaceX's stock price this week. First, the 14th test flight launch of Starship is scheduled for September 18 at Starbase, Texas. This launch will also carry 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites. Pivotal Research believes that if Starlink increases its market share in the $1.7 trillion wireless market, SpaceX's stock price could reach $220. Conversely, there are observations that if the launch is delayed or experiences issues, the stock price could fall below $140 next week.

Nasdaq index rebalancing has also emerged as a variable. Coingape cited a Bloomberg report stating that an increased index weighting for SpaceX could trigger billions of dollars in passive fund purchases. However, an analyst on X pointed out that pre-emptive buying might flow in before the actual rebalancing. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 15-16 is also a burden. Coingape's prediction market data reflected an 80% probability of the Fed initiating a 25bp interest rate hike. The possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan was also presented as a factor that could stimulate yen appreciation and concerns about the unwinding of yen carry trades.

Market outlooks are mixed. One analyst evaluated that the stock price could rise further above $148, based on SpaceX's revenue growth and the company's CFO's year-end forecast of $100 billion in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). On the other hand, options trader Mike, while noting on X that “the chart trend is very positive,” pointed out that the stock had encountered resistance twice around $155. He suggested $170 as the next target range if the stock closes above the $155 resistance level. For long-term outlooks, Marcos Mila anticipated a potential drop to $117 over the next 12 months, but also left open the possibility of an increase to $450.

Technically, the Bollinger Band midline, at $148 and $146 based on the September 12 closing price, has been presented as the baseline for short-term trends. Analysis suggests that if the stock maintains above this midline, it could aim for $169, the Fibonacci 161.8% retracement level, after breaking past the $152 resistance. An Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 59 also indicates that bullish momentum is still alive. However, Coingape reported that if hawkish remarks from the Fed increase selling pressure, the stock price could break below the Bollinger Band midline and fall to $139, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level.

This week, SpaceX's stock price has entered a phase where three factors — the success of the launch, expectations for index inclusion, and interest rate variables — are simultaneously intertwined. Breaking above $152 and $155 is seen as a signal for upward revaluation, while falling below $146 and $140 is interpreted as a signal for increased downward pressure. The short-term direction is highly likely to be determined by the event outcomes and the Fed's message.

[Article Key Summary]

-SpaceX faces Starship's 14th test flight launch, Nasdaq rebalancing, and the FOMC meeting as key variables this week.

-If the stock price holds above $146, $152 and $169 are presented as upside targets; if it falls below $140, a downward path to $139 could open.

-Market views are divided between those focusing on year-end ARR expectations of $100 billion and the possibility of breaking through $155 resistance, and those warning of a potential drop to $117.

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