Bitcoin (BTC) and Alts, a Carbon Copy Just Before a Major Uptrend..."A Replica of the 2020 Bull Market"

▲ Altcoin, bull market/AI generated image

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins are forming a macro structure similar to the period just before the 2016 and 2020 bull markets.

Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, stated in a video uploaded on September 4 (local time) that “the environment for an explosive move in altcoins is being created.” The total altcoin market capitalization has been consolidating at around $1 trillion for nearly five years and is currently approaching its 20-month moving average. Gambardello explained that in 2016 and 2020, a bull market began after a period of economic expansion coincided with a breakout above the 20-month moving average.

Bitcoin has entered a critical juncture where both short-term and macro trends are important. On the weekly chart, it is testing the 50-week moving average located at approximately $80,000, and on the monthly chart, it is approaching the 20-month moving average. Gambardello emphasized the importance of Bitcoin closing its weekly candle above $80,000. However, he warned that strong resistance and bearish divergence could appear in the $82,000-$83,000 range. He did not rule out a scenario where a short-term rebound fails, pushing Bitcoin back down to $70,000.

Cardano (ADA) has entered a key resistance zone where $0.21-$0.23 overlaps with its 200-day moving average. Gambardello assessed that Cardano is showing stronger upward momentum than Sui (SUI) by forming a trend of higher highs and higher lows. He identified a breakout above the 200-day moving average as a crucial condition for a macro trend reversal, citing that a strong rally followed a breakout above this moving average in November 2024. Conversely, he emphasized that if it fails to break out, it could retest the $0.20 vicinity, stating, “We need to wait for a breakout.”

While maintaining a bullish outlook on Cardano, Gambardello rated Midnight (NIGHT)'s risk-reward higher. He cited Midnight's technical connection to Cardano and IOG's involvement in its development as key reasons. He stated, “I believe Midnight can perform better than Cardano.” He analyzed that Midnight's 200-day moving average is around $0.03-$0.04, and it would require approximately a 75% increase to reach that level. Gambardello assessed that Midnight is in the early stages of preparing for its first full bull cycle.

The core message of the video is that long-term bullish conditions are forming, but a short-term breakout has not yet been confirmed. Gambardello compared the current macro structure of Bitcoin and altcoins to the early stages of the 2016 and 2020 bull markets. At the same time, he stressed that strong resistance could emerge at Bitcoin's $82,000-$83,000 range and Cardano's 200-day moving average, emphasizing that trend confirmation is paramount.

[Article Key Summary]

-Gambardello analyzed that the altcoin market is creating a macro structure similar to the period just before the 2016 and 2020 bull markets.

-Bitcoin at $82,000-$83,000 and Cardano at $0.21-$0.23 and its 200-day moving average were presented as key resistance levels.

-While maintaining a bullish outlook on Cardano, Gambardello assessed that Midnight offers greater opportunities in terms of risk-reward.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*