Bitcoin (BTC) Reclaims $80,000... But $100,000 Bets Are 'Chilly'

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Rise/ChatGPT Generated Image

Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC) and Ethereum (Ethereum, ETH) have rebounded strongly. However, prediction markets are showing a low probability of breaking through the year's high.

According to the cryptocurrency media BeInCrypto on September 4 (local time), Polymarket participants assessed the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by 2026 at 32%. The likelihood of Ethereum rising to $3,500 was tallied at 31%. Bitcoin rose 4.62% over 24 hours to record $80,861. Ethereum increased by 4.85% to $2,501.

The rebound in the cryptocurrency market was influenced by the possibility of an end to the Iran war and expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that he could support freezing the benchmark interest rate. The market's reflected probability of a September rate hike once rose to 70% but has since fallen to 50%. U.S. private sector employment increased by 38,000 in August, falling short of the estimated 47,000.

Institutional funds have also flowed back in. Approximately $101.1 million was net-inflowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs, with iShares Bitcoin Trust leading the inflows. However, Polymarket showed a clear difference between short-term upward expectations and long-term peak breakthrough forecasts.

The probability of Bitcoin reaching $85,000 jumped 43 percentage points in a single day to 81%. The probability of reaching $90,000 decreased by 2 percentage points to 61%. The probabilities of reaching $95,000 and $100,000 were tallied at 44% and 32% respectively. $110,000 and $120,000 remained at 20% and 12% respectively. The probability of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 decreased by 28 percentage points to 48%.

Ethereum showed a similar trend. The probability of reaching $2,750 rose by 25 percentage points to 75%, and $3,000 increased by 4 percentage points to 54%. The possibilities of reaching $3,500 and $4,000 were 31% and 17% respectively. The probability of Bitcoin re-recording $75,000 before the end of the year was 72%, and the probability of Ethereum falling to $2,250 was 56%.

[Article Key Summary]

-Polymarket assessed the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by 2026 at 32%, and Ethereum reaching $3,500 at 31%.

-The probability of achieving short-term upward targets, such as Bitcoin at $85,000 and Ethereum at $2,750, significantly increased.

-Approximately $101.1 million was net-inflowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs, but the outlook for breaking through previous highs was relatively cautious.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*