Bitcoin (BTC), bottom signal ON...MACD says "still more to fall"

▲ US Dollar and Bitcoin (BTC)

A bottom signal has appeared for Bitcoin (BTC), but there is a possibility of further short-term correction down to $73,500.

Lark Davis, host of the cryptocurrency podcast The Lark Davis Show, argued in an episode on September 3 (local time) that based on the realized profit-to-loss ratio, it is highly likely that Bitcoin's bottom has already formed. He explained that this indicator signaled bottoms in 2015 and 2018, and in 2012, it activated several months after the bottom. Davis also estimated that if not for the FTX incident in 2022, the bottom would have been caught. However, he pointed out that an exceptional situation where a similar major negative event could push it down to $40,000 is possible.

The resumption of institutional buying was also presented as a basis for the bottom theory. Strategy bought 4,600 BTC this week, and Strive also purchased 1,800 BTC. Davis noted that while Strategy had sold some Bitcoin in recent months, it has now resumed buying. He emphasized, "He is buying again," stressing that the resumption of buying is more important than recent selling.

However, bearish signals remain on the short-term chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still indicates selling pressure. Davis suggested approximately $74,500, where the 20-day exponential moving average is located, and approximately $72,500, near the 200-day exponential moving average, as potential correction targets. He stated his short position target is $73,500 and his stop-loss is $79,500.

Among altcoins, Uniswap (UNI) and Solana (SOL) were highlighted. Uniswap processed approximately $2 billion in transactions on the Robinhood chain within 24 hours, and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to 79. Davis positively evaluated the trend of converting past resistance lines into support lines and the improvement in the fee revenue structure. For Solana, he considered support at $97-98 to be crucial. The MACD showed bearishness, predicting that it could correct down to $85 if further negative news emerges.

For Pump.fun (PUMP), actual revenue and token burning were cited as bullish factors. According to the video, its market capitalization is approximately $2 billion, and its annualized revenue over the past 30 days is about $454 million. The recent monthly revenue rate is 33% higher than the Q2 average, and 50% of the revenue is used for PUMP buybacks and burning. Davis assessed that if the market enters a long-term bull phase again, projects with actual revenue and utility in emerging DeFi ecosystems, including the Robinhood chain, could find opportunities.

[Article Key Summary]

-Lark Davis argued that based on the realized profit-to-loss ratio, which caught bottoms in previous cycles, it is highly likely that Bitcoin's bottom has already formed.

-In the short term, with continued bearish MACD signals, further correction to around $74,500 and $73,500 was suggested.

-For Uniswap, Solana, and Pump.fun, trading volume, support levels, and actual revenue/token burning structure were cited as key variables, respectively.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*