Bitcoin (BTC), Halving Formula Shakes...Willy Woo "Now It Goes for 6-8 Years"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), halving/ChatGPT generated image

A diagnosis has emerged that Bitcoin (BTC)'s '4-year halving cycle formula' is shaking.

According to BeInCrypto on September 3 (local time), on-chain analyst Willy Woo raised the possibility that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle is ending and will follow the traditional finance's 6-8 year debt cycle. He believes that the supply shock created by halving is not as strong as it used to be. After April 2024, the annual new issuance volume is approximately 0.8% of the total supply. After the 2028 halving, it will decrease to about 0.4%.

What Woo focused on was the diminishing impact of reduced new supply. In 2025, gold mining volume accounted for approximately 1.7% of all gold existing above ground. Bitcoin's annual supply growth rate is already lower than gold's. Woo believes that these changes could weaken the power of the price cycle, which used to revolve around halving events. The emergence of Bitcoin spot ETFs and reduced volatility were also cited as market structure changes from past cycles.

Instead, Woo argues that Bitcoin could become more sensitive to the liquidity cycles of traditional finance. The 6-8 year debt cycle is a recurring pattern of interest rate cuts, credit expansion, asset price increases, inflation, interest rate hikes, and economic slowdowns. The average post-war US business cycle compiled by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is approximately 75 months from peak to peak. This is a period slightly longer than 6 years.

However, there is also a counter-argument that it is too early to conclude that the existing 4-year cycle has ended. Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 in October 2025, approximately 18 months after the April 2024 halving. The subsequent decline at one point reached about 50%. This pattern is similar to what was observed after the peaks in 2017 and 2021, strengthening the argument that the halving cycle is still valid. The fact that Bitcoin has only completed four cycles so far also makes judgment difficult.

Going forward, the timing of the formation of a low point is expected to be a clue that will differentiate the two arguments. If the existing 4-year cycle repeats, a low point is expected to form around late 2026, approximately one year after the peak, as in the previous two instances, followed by a recovery towards the 2028 halving. Conversely, if it shifts to a 6-8 year cycle, the low point will be delayed until after 2027, and changes in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy will have a greater influence on price movements than the halving.

[Key Summary of Article]

-Willy Woo raised the possibility that Bitcoin's 4-year halving-centric cycle could shift to a 6-8 year traditional finance debt cycle.

-Bitcoin's annual new issuance volume is approximately 0.8% and is expected to decrease to about 0.4% after the 2028 halving.

-If a low point forms in late 2026, the existing 4-year cycle will gain traction, but if it is delayed until after 2027, the new cycle theory may gain attention.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*