"Would have been higher without war"...Trump confident in further US stock market rally

▲ US stock market, bull market/AI generated image

As Donald Trump expressed confidence in further stock market gains, prediction markets also see a more than 50% chance of the S&P 500 breaking the 8,000 mark by year-end.

According to Benzinga on September 3 (local time), the prediction market Kalshi estimated the probability of the S&P 500 breaking 8,000 by year-end at 51.8%. While significantly lower than the year's high of 79% recorded last month, it remains high compared to 19% at the beginning of this year.

As the potential for gains increased, market expectations quickly lowered. The probability of the S&P 500 reaching 8,200 or higher fell to 27%, half of the 54% recorded in mid-August. The likelihood of breaking 8,400 was only about 16%. The probability of the closing price on December 31 exceeding 8,000 was 17%, while the probability of closing between 7,600 and 7,799.99 was 13%.

The S&P 500 has risen 12% this year, but its growth rate has slowed to 0.87% in the past month. In mid-August, it recorded an all-time high closing price of 7,798.99. On September 2, it closed at 7,666.60, up 0.46%. JPMorgan raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from the previous 7,800 to 8,000 last month, citing strong corporate earnings and artificial intelligence (AI) momentum.

Trump also predicted that the stock market rally would continue despite volatility from the Iran war. At a White House press conference, he emphasized that “the stock market will go up” and that the market continues to set new records. He also argued that without the impact of the Iran war, the stock market would have been at an even higher level than it is now.

Contrary to Trump's bullish outlook, prediction markets showed cautious betting on the S&P 500 climbing beyond 8,000 to even higher levels. While the probability of breaking 8,000 by year-end is 51.8%, it drops significantly as the target increases: 27% for 8,200 and about 16% for 8,400.

[Article Summary]

-Former U.S. President Trump predicted that the U.S. stock market would continue to rise despite the Iran war.

-Kalshi's prediction market estimated the probability of the S&P 500 breaking 8,000 by year-end at 51.8%, significantly higher than 19% at the beginning of this year.

-The probability of the S&P 500 breaking 8,200 was 27%, and 8,400 was about 16%, showing rapidly decreasing expectations as the target increased.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*