US Cryptocurrency Bill 'Out of Sync'..."Vote is 91% but Passage is 13%"

▲ Cryptocurrency regulation, cryptocurrency law, US Securities and Exchange Commission/AI generated image

The US Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill (CLARITY) has become embroiled in a three-way conflict ahead of its September 15 vote.

According to CoinGape, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on September 1 (local time), US Senate leadership is pushing for a cloture vote on the bill on September 15. 60 votes are needed to advance the bill to the next stage. Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, but Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul are expected to vote against it. This means approximately 7 additional votes must be secured from the Democratic Party.

The first point of contention is the ethics regulation that limits politicians' cryptocurrency earnings. US President Donald Trump's 2025 financial disclosure showed cryptocurrency-related income of approximately $1.4 billion. This included TRUMP memecoin royalties and World Liberty Financial earnings. Democrats are demanding effective restrictions on public officials who profit from cryptocurrency businesses. Republicans are countering that this demand could hinder the bill's passage.

Article 604, which includes protection for decentralized finance (DeFi) developers, is also a point of conflict. This provision protects developers who do not directly hold user assets from the obligation to register as money transmitters. Law enforcement agencies are concerned about potential regulatory gaps. The industry counters that it is not a provision to protect criminals but a mechanism to protect software developers. Senator Tim Scott, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, criticized Democrats, saying they are “trying to drive cryptocurrency out of the US” as negotiations stalled.

The third point of contention is stablecoin rewards. The stablecoin regulatory bill, GENIUS, stipulates that issuers cannot directly pay interest but allows trading platforms to distribute profits to users. Coinbase (COIN) earns approximately $1.35 billion annually from its USDC rewards program. The banking sector is demanding that even this structure be restricted. Prediction markets also reflected the bill's uncertainty. Kalshi saw a 91% chance of a Senate vote before October, while Polymarket estimated a 13% chance of legislation being enacted within the year. Galaxy Research lowered the probability of passage to 10%.

Even if the September 15 vote fails, discussions on cryptocurrency regulation will not stop. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing for meetings to establish new regulations concerning cryptocurrency investment contracts. Efforts to align regulations with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are also ongoing. However, CoinGape pointed out that administrative agency regulations have a narrower scope than laws and are more likely to be overturned with future changes in government. Market attention is shifting beyond whether the vote will be held, to securing 60 votes and the possibility of legislative enactment.

[Article Key Summary]

-The US Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill faces conflicts over ethics regulations, decentralized finance developer protection, and stablecoin rewards ahead of its September 15 Senate vote.

-Kalshi saw a 91% chance of a Senate vote before October, but Polymarket estimated a 13% chance of legislation being enacted within the year.

-As it is difficult for Republicans alone to secure 60 votes, additional support from Democrats has emerged as a key variable for the bill's passage.

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