Solana (SOL) fights to defend $103... Price stagnant despite ETF breaking $1 billion

▲ Solana (SOL) ©

Solana (SOL) is expected to be at a crossroads between a rebound to $118.84 and a correction to $94.40, depending on whether it can defend the $103 support line. While record funds have flowed into US Solana spot ETFs, concentration on the largest product and weakened trading participation are limiting the uptrend.

According to investment media TradingNews on September 1st (local time), Solana traded at $103.19, down $1.59 from 24 hours ago, but rose 10.04% over the past 7 days. Its market capitalization is $60.38 billion, and its circulating supply is 585.121 million SOL, ranking 7th in the cryptocurrency market. Notably, around $103, approximately 39 million SOL were accumulated, making it the largest buying cost zone in the market.

US Solana spot ETFs saw a net inflow of over $153 million in the week up to August 28, the largest this year. Monthly net inflows also exceeded $174 million, reaching a new high since the product's launch in October 2025. The cumulative net inflow for the nine products increased to $1.32 billion, with net assets reaching $1.49 billion. However, Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) accounted for approximately 77% of the total funds with a cumulative net inflow of $1.01 billion, indicating that institutional demand is concentrated on a single product.

BSOL holds approximately 9.3 million SOL and stakes the entire amount to provide protocol rewards to investors. This accounts for approximately 1.6% of Solana's circulating supply. Exchange holdings have also decreased by 4.91%, with 2.6 million SOL moving out, reducing the immediately tradable supply in the market. However, the BSOL stock price has fallen by about 40% since its launch, suggesting that the inflow of over $1 billion and the staking effect have not yet led to a price increase.

Technically, recovering $103.35 is the first hurdle to determine the short-term trend. If it surpasses this, it could test the weekly resistance levels of $118.84 and $123, respectively, and a breakthrough with accompanying trading volume would set $132 and $150 as the next targets. The weekly Relative Strength Index is 57.62, not yet reaching overbought levels. Conversely, if it closes below $103, it could correct to $94.40 and $85.79, with the structural support level on the weekly chart analyzed at $82.19.

In the derivatives market, the long/short account ratios for Binance and OKX are 1.93 and 1.8, respectively, indicating that approximately 66% of leveraged accounts are betting on a price increase. With declining trading volume and a concentration of long positions, liquidation pressure could increase if $103 is breached. Additionally, the elevated probability of a 25bp interest rate hike in September, as reflected by the CME FedWatch, at 66.4%, adds to the burden. The media presented a price range of $94.40 to $118.84 as the base scenario until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16, predicting a slight bullish trend above $103 and increased downside risk if it closes below that level.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*