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▲ Ethereum (ETH)/AI generated image ©
Ethereum (ETH) has been pushed down to the $2,400 level, swept up in a risk-off trend driven by macroeconomic factors. Short-term indicators point to an oversold condition, but there's a prospect that if the $2,383.80 support level breaks, the decline could extend to $2,300.
According to cryptocurrency market data aggregator CoinMarketCap on September 2 (local time), Ethereum recorded a 2.15% drop over the past 24 hours, trading at $2,411.87. Considering that Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.54% and the total cryptocurrency market cap by 1.44% during the same period, this suggests that the decline is more a result of a general market downturn than individual negative factors.
Key factors contributing to the decline include the rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield to 4.79% and escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which have fueled risk-aversion sentiment. Rising international oil prices and the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy outlook also weighed on the market. Ethereum showed a high correlation of 89.6% with gold, and across the broader market, forced liquidations due to macroeconomic instability exceeded $100 million.
The movement of funds into altcoins also weakened. CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index fell by 14.81% in 24 hours to 23, remaining in 'Bitcoin Season.' This indicates that investors are moving to Bitcoin, which is perceived as relatively safer than altcoins. Ethereum is trading below its 7-day and 30-day moving averages, suggesting a continued short-term bearish trend.
However, the 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the oversold zone at 27.21. While there is room for a technical rebound if market sentiment stabilizes, the $2,488.92 resistance level must be overcome to confirm a trend reversal. A net inflow of $87.7 million into Ethereum spot ETFs on August 31 is a factor supporting the price, but currently, macroeconomic downward pressure is stronger than ETF demand.
The short-term watershed is the recent low of $2,383.80. If this price holds, there's a possibility of sideways movement within the $2,383.80 to $2,488.92 range, but if the daily close falls below the support line, a further decline to $2,300 could occur. The future direction is expected to be determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s interest rate decision and policy guidance on September 16. A dovish signal could lead to a quick rebound, but if an interest rate hike or a hawkish message is confirmed, the downtrend could be extended.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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