SpaceX (SPCX) Overcomes Lockup Shock...Next Target $160

▲ SpaceX (SPCX), Space Industry/AI Generated Image

SpaceX (SPCX) stock surged 15% from the previous day. Although 911.5 million shares were released from lockup, concerns about large-scale insider selling did not materialize, and investor sentiment quickly turned around.

According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on August 7 (local time), SpaceX successfully passed its first and largest lockup release. With 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors becoming available for sale, the percentage of tradable shares increased from 4.9% to 11.8% of the total outstanding shares. The value of shares that could be released into the market amounted to approximately $100 billion, but no large-scale selling occurred.

Ahead of the lockup release, the stock price had already fallen significantly from its June high of $225.61 to around $105. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens stated, “A significant portion of the recent decline was a pre-emptive move reflecting potential dilution.” Argus analyst Steven Silver upgraded SpaceX’s investment rating from Hold to Buy and set a price target of $160. In the company’s first earnings release, revenue increased by 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion.

Bullish expectations also prevailed in the options market. Call option open interest was 1,031,939 contracts, more than double the put option open interest of 454,896 contracts. The put-call ratio was 0.44. For options expiring on August 14, 21, and 28, call option open interest was concentrated between $130 and $160, with particularly many contracts accumulated around $150 and $160. As of July 29, shorted shares totaled approximately 219.3 million, valued at $24.6 billion, representing about 34% of the float.

Technically, the stock broke above the downward channel that had persisted since mid-June. The next resistance level is $137.69, followed by the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at $150.98. An analysis suggests that if it surpasses $165.23, the all-time high of $225.61 could come back into view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to 68.37, just before the overbought zone. Conversely, BeInCrypto analyzed that if the daily candle closes below $126.88, there is a possibility of retesting the $108.09 low.

The burden of additional stock supply remains. If lockups are sequentially released until December 8, up to 40% of the total shares could become tradable. Elon Musk’s holdings remain restricted from sale until mid-2027. The future stock price movement depends on how much of the additional released stock is absorbed by new demand.

[Article Summary]

-SpaceX stock surged 15% from the previous day, temporarily overcoming concerns about large-scale selling due to the release of 911.5 million shares from lockup.

-Argus upgraded SpaceX’s investment rating to Buy and set a price target of $160, and call option open interest more than doubled that of put options.

-The next major resistance levels are $137.69 and $150.98, and up to 40% of the total shares could become tradable by December 8.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*