BlackRock monopolizes 93% of fund inflows…BlackRock has swallowed the Bitcoin ETF market!

▲ BlackRock Bitcoin/ChatGPT generated image ©

Despite $763.6 million in inflows, Bitcoin (BTC) only rose by $1,000, and the first US Bitcoin spot ETF ultimately chose liquidation. With 79.5% of the fund inflows concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT, it is being evaluated that market restructuring has begun in earnest rather than a recovery in institutional demand.

According to investment media TradingNews on August 7 (local time), US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for four consecutive trading days from August 3 to 6. The daily net inflows were $170.1 million, $211.49 million, $244.4 million, and $137.6 million, respectively, totaling $763.6 million. However, Bitcoin only rose from the early $64,000 range at the beginning of August to approximately $65,008 on the 7th. Despite over $700 million in regulated demand flowing in, the price increase was merely about $1,000.

IBIT accounted for $479 million out of the $626 million in net inflows during its first three trading days, and on August 6, it attracted $128.3 million, approximately 93% of the total $137.6 million. The cumulative inflow over four trading days was $606.88 million, representing 79.5% of the total. IBIT's net assets stand at $47.08 billion, making up 60.7% of the entire US Bitcoin spot ETF market's $77.6 billion. Its cumulative net inflow also exceeds $51.5 billion for all 12 products combined, totaling $60.5 billion, indicating that other products have been in a net outflow state since their launch when combined.

Amid intensifying market concentration, Hashdex has decided to liquidate DEFI after August 17. This marks the first instance of a spot ETF directly holding Bitcoin closing down in the US. DEFI, with net assets of merely $14.7 million, plans to sell its remaining approximately 225 BTC and distribute cash to investors around August 28. The asset size difference between IBIT and DEFI is approximately 3,203 times, revealing the structural limitations of small ETFs that could not withstand low assets under management, trading liquidity, and the burden of fixed operating costs.

The media pointed to selling by long-term holders and miners, as well as basis trading, as reasons why the price did not move significantly despite large-scale ETF purchases. Recently, approximately 210,000 BTC held by long-term holders moved, and one large mining company sold 2,213 BTC at an average of $73,078 in the second quarter, then provided 18,750 BTC as loan collateral. Basis trading, which involves buying ETFs and simultaneously selling futures to profit from the price difference, also creates spot ETF net inflows but is not a direct bet on Bitcoin price appreciation, it explained. In contrast, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have accumulated over 20,000 BTC since July 29.

Technically, the key is whether the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern at $66,800 is breached. If this price is surpassed with accompanying trading volume, it could rise to $69,000 and then $76,000, but if the support level of $63,321 breaks, $62,000 and the July low of $58,000 could open up consecutively. The media presented a 45% chance of sideways movement between $62,000 and $67,000, a 30% bullish scenario of rising to $76,000, and a 25% bearish scenario of retesting $58,000. Ultimately, this fund inflow is closer to price stabilization than a signal for a full-fledged rally, and the future direction depends more on the spread of demand across various ETFs than on the size of the inflows, according to the analysis.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*