XRP, Loss Indicator Plunges to Bottom...Emergency to Defend $1

▲ XRP/ChatGPT generated image

XRP's investment loss indicator has plummeted to levels seen during past bear market bottoms. However, it has not yet reached the extreme figures of the 2022 sell-off.

According to The Crypto Basic on August 6 (local time), XRP's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) fell to -0.3391, one of its lowest levels in recent years. As unrealized losses surpassed unrealized profits, market sentiment entered a capitulation phase. Similar trends have historically appeared near XRP's major bear market bottoms.

NUPL is an indicator that shows whether overall holders are in unrealized profit or unrealized loss. When the figure drops significantly, the confidence of investors who bought at high prices tends to waver, and holdings that cannot withstand losses tend to enter the market. Long-term investors may refrain from selling, leading to a change of hands that often occurs at the end of a bear market.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio recorded 0.7468, meaning the market valuation is approximately 25.3% lower than the average acquisition cost of on-chain holders. XRP showed similar figures during the 2018-2019 bear market bottom and the prolonged sell-off in 2022 before entering a recovery phase. However, in 2022, NUPL dropped to -0.75 to -0.8, indicating much stronger loss pressure than currently observed.

In early 2021, NUPL surpassed 0.5, entering a "greed" phase, but it plummeted to around -0.75 in 2022. When XRP exceeded $3 in early 2025, the indicator turned positive again. Subsequently, as the price dropped by approximately 70% from its peak, NUPL also fell to -0.3391. While this trend resembles past bottom formations, it does not guarantee the same outcome.

Downward pressure remains in technical indicators as well. XRP has fallen below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and the 200-day Moving Average, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.27. It has also broken below the lower boundary of the daily symmetrical triangle. Key support levels are between $1 and $1.03, and if the weekly closing price falls below $1, the next support zone is suggested at $0.9 to $0.95. For a rebound to gain strength, XRP must first recover $1.1 to $1.14, after which the key target is around the 200-day Moving Average at $1.38.

[Article Key Summary]

-XRP's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) dropped to -0.3391, entering a capitulation phase historically seen near bear market bottoms.

-The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is 0.7468, indicating the market valuation is approximately 25.3% lower than holders' average acquisition cost.

-XRP is trading below its major moving averages, with key price levels identified as support at $1-$1.03 and resistance at $1.1-$1.14.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*