6 consecutive trading days of net inflow! Bitcoin faces test to break $65,000

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) ©CoinReaders

Despite $626 million flowing into Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs over three trading days, the price only rose by 2%, putting the question of whether this capital represents genuine demand driving a trend reversal or arbitrage-driven inflow to the test. The fact that one product, IBIT, accounted for 76.5% of the total inflow also makes it difficult to be optimistic about the recovery of institutional demand.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on August 6 (local time), US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $626 million during the first three trading days of August. This is the strongest three-day streak since early May, and the net inflow streak has continued for six consecutive trading days. On August 5, $244.42 million, the largest amount this week, flowed in, with IBIT absorbing $196.83 million, or 80.5%. IBIT's three-day net inflow increased to $479 million, and its cumulative net inflow reached approximately $61 billion.

However, capital inflow became increasingly concentrated in IBIT. IBIT's share of the total net inflow rose from 65.5% on August 3 to 80.5% on August 4 and 5, respectively. The remaining 11 products accounted for only $147 million of the total inflow over the three days. The net assets of US Bitcoin spot ETFs are $77.6 billion, with a cumulative net inflow of $51.5 billion, and IBIT holds approximately $47.08 billion, or 60.7% of the total net assets. In contrast, GBTC has seen a cumulative outflow of $27.47 billion since its conversion.

The price reaction was limited. Bitcoin rose by about 2% from approximately $63,500 to an intraday high of $64,830 but slipped to $64,509.85, failing to surpass the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $64,587. Futures and perpetual contract open interest decreased by 2.1% to $32.1 billion, the annualized futures basis was 5%, and the 30-day implied volatility hit 36%, the lowest since May 31. The media suggested that basis arbitrage, combining spot ETF purchases with futures sales, might be captured in inflow figures without creating genuine net demand for Bitcoin.

The volatility of fund flows is also a concern. On July 30, there was a net inflow of $233.1 million, but the next day, inflows disappeared from all 12 products, resulting in a net outflow of $265.4 million. The total net outflow for the first half of 2026 also reached $5.4 billion. DEFI, the smallest product in the industry, with net assets of $14.7 million, is scheduled to cease trading on August 17, marking the first liquidation of a US Bitcoin spot ETF. The media suggested targets of $66,242 and the 100-day EMA of $67,025 if Bitcoin breaks above the $65,000 closing price, and warned that if daily trading closes below $62,662, $60,000 and the June low of $59,100 could be re-tested.

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