Did Michael Burry's Palantir Short Sell Succeed? The Current Value of $100

▲ Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR)/Source: X ©

If one had invested $100 at the beginning of the year in Palantir Technologies (PLTR), which 'Big Short' Michael Burry designated as the largest short-selling target for 2026, its current value would have reportedly decreased to approximately $89.

According to the cryptocurrency news outlet Finbold on August 6 (local time), Palantir's stock price fell from approximately $177 at the beginning of 2026 to around $158 as of the reporting date. The year-to-date (YTD) return is approximately -11%, meaning an investment of $100 during the same period would have resulted in a loss of about $11.

If the investment amount is expanded to $1,000, the current valuation is estimated to be approximately $893. This represents a loss of about $107, and considering only this year's stock price movement, Burry's bearish outlook appears to have been accurate.

Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 global financial crisis, bet on Palantir's decline through put options at the end of 2025. According to regulatory filings, his fund held option exposure with a notional value of approximately $912 million, linked to about 5 million shares of Palantir stock, before withdrawing its registration. Subsequently, he continued to publicly mention put options and direct short-selling positions, pointing out the company's overvaluation problem.

Burry's core argument was that Palantir's stock price reflected overly optimistic growth forecasts and the artificial intelligence (AI) craze. However, contrary to the stock price decline, the company's performance continued to grow. Palantir's Q1 2026 revenue increased by 85% year-over-year to $1.63 billion.

CEO Alex Karp announced in the Q2 earnings released on August 3 that “the entire business has nearly doubled in 12 months.” The stock price rose by 30% on a weekly basis around the earnings announcement. Therefore, despite the year-to-date decline, it is premature to conclude that Burry's bearish outlook has definitively proven correct, as business growth and a short-term rebound must also be considered.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*