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▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Altcoin, Cryptocurrency Regulation/AI Generated Image
A warning has been issued that if the US cryptocurrency market structure bill fails to pass the Senate, additional selling pressure could flood Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins. However, there is a possibility that the market will bottom out at the end of the third quarter and rebound in early Q4.
According to the crypto media outlet Coingape on August 4 (local time), Wall Street investment firm Bernstein analyzed that the cryptocurrency market could face an immediate shock if the US Senate fails to process the bill before its summer recess. It also warned of a potential short-term sharp decline not only for Bitcoin but also for high-risk altcoins.
The US cryptocurrency market structure bill passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 with 294 votes in favor and 134 against. The Senate Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee also processed their respective versions of the bill, and a 616-page combined bill was released on July 22, 2026. The bill distinguishes the jurisdictions of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and includes regulations for decentralized finance (DeFi), stablecoin earnings, and developer protection.
The Senate is scheduled to enter a month-long summer recess around August 7-8. The probability of the bill passing this year, as tallied by Polymarket, has dropped to 31%, a 9% decrease in a month. Growing opposition from Democrats over ethical provisions related to Donald Trump's family's cryptocurrency business has lowered the chances of passage. Senate Majority Whip John Thune mentioned the possibility of a procedural vote before the recess, but the bill was not included in the official full session schedule.
Bernstein analysts stated that if the bill's processing fails, “an immediate sell-off reaction could occur across the industry.” Bitcoin has fallen 27-30% year-to-date and has dropped 2-3% on a weekly basis. Bernstein predicted, “We expect the cryptocurrency market to form a bottom and regain upward momentum in late Q3 and early Q4, ahead of the midterm elections.”
Even if the bill's passage is delayed, the SEC and CFTC are expected to expedite institutional reforms through their joint regulatory plan, Project Crypto. Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong said, “This week we will see which senators represent the will of the people and vote for common-sense legislation.” Grayscale also urged a floor vote before the recess.
[Article Key Summary]
-Bernstein warned that if the US cryptocurrency market structure bill fails, a short-term sell-off could hit Bitcoin and high-risk altcoins.
-Polymarket's tally shows the bill's chance of passing this year has dropped to 31%, and the Senate will enter its summer recess around August 7-8.
-Bernstein predicts that after a short-term correction, the cryptocurrency market will form a bottom at the end of Q3 and recover upward momentum in early Q4.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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