Why US Stocks Soar While Bitcoin Stalls…BTC August Bearish Warning

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Nasdaq (NASDAQ)/ChatGPT generated image ©

New York stocks rebounded strongly, but Bitcoin (BTC) remained stagnant around $62,700, excluded from the risk asset rally. Outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, a slowdown in institutional trading, and Strategy's halt in purchases have combined with the fourth theft incident from Coldcard hardware wallets, suppressing investor sentiment.

According to investment specialized media TradingNews on August 3 (local time), Bitcoin started trading at $63,497.25 and then fell to $62,643. While the S&P 500 index rose 1.16% and the Nasdaq Composite index rose 1.77% after US President Donald Trump withdrew plans for an attack on Iran and announced the start of negotiations, Bitcoin failed to gain significant rebound momentum. Its decline over the past week is 3.88%, and the current price is approximately 50% lower than its all-time high of $126,198.07 recorded in October 2025.

The main burden is the weakening buying interest in Bitcoin spot ETFs. On July 31, $265.4 million was net outflowed from US Bitcoin spot ETFs, with $122.7 million alone exiting BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Weekly fund flows also turned into a net outflow of approximately 4,000 Bitcoins. The average daily spot trading volume in July fell to its lowest level since November 2023, and by some metrics, it was the lowest since 2019. Open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in the US also retreated to 2023 levels.

The absence of Strategy, the largest corporate buyer, is also growing. The company's Bitcoin holdings, at 843,775 units, have remained unchanged for 35 days, marking the longest pause in purchases in approximately two years. The average purchase price is $75,494, resulting in an estimated unrealized loss of about $9.9 billion based on the current price. For Strategy to increase its holdings to 1 million by the end of 2026, it would need to purchase 7,000 Bitcoins, worth approximately $447 million, each week for the remaining approximately 22 weeks, but the current purchase volume is '0'.

A series of thefts targeting Coldcard wallets also continued. In the fourth attack detected by Galaxy Research, at least 388.93 Bitcoins were moved from 462 affected addresses over approximately 2 hours and 30 minutes, with the total stolen amount estimated at about 449 Bitcoins. In the previous three attacks, a total of 1,367.05 Bitcoins, worth approximately $88.6 million, were siphoned from 4,585 addresses. The media reported that the cause was a random number generation error in the firmware distributed in March 2021, adding that even installing emergency firmware would not fix the vulnerability of already generated seed phrases.

Technically, Bitcoin is trading below all major daily moving averages, including the 20-day exponential moving average of $64,288 and the 50-day moving average of $64,891. If $62,223 is breached, it could fall through the $60,000-$62,000 support zone to the June low of $57,500. The media's base forecast range for August is $58,000-$64,000. Conversely, a daily close above $64,891 would increase the likelihood of breaking out of the bearish structure. Over the past four years, Bitcoin has declined every August, recording an average loss of about 10%. If this trend repeats, the price at the end of the month could drop to about $56,400.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*