Bitcoin, 'Worst Undervaluation' Since 2010... Benjamin Cowen: "Will Be Pushed Further Down Until Year-End"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Bear Market/AI Generated Image

The cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin (BTC), has approached its deepest undervaluation since 2010, but a forecast suggests that the bearish trend is not yet over.

Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse and a veteran trader, stated in a video on his YouTube channel on August 2 (local time) that “the cryptocurrency market is significantly below its fair value calculated by the logarithmic regression trendline.” He explained that as the fair value trendline rises over time, the extent of undervaluation grows even if prices consolidate. Cowen noted that the current trend is similar to 2019, adding, “Considering the 4-year cycle, the market could become even more undervalued before the end of this year.”

The current gap between the market and long-term fair value is close to the largest level since 2010, the early days of the cryptocurrency market. Cowen pointed out that while speculation and excessive promises have accumulated over approximately 17 years since Bitcoin's inception, trust in the industry has not grown sufficiently. An analysis suggests that repeated rug pulls by memecoins, presidential-themed scam projects, and security vulnerabilities in cold storage devices have encouraged the departure of individual investors. He assessed that incidents where even investors who chose cold wallets for secure storage lost Bitcoin demonstrate the growing pains the industry is experiencing.

A decrease in viewership for cryptocurrency-related YouTube channels was also presented as evidence of waning interest from individual investors. Cowen explained that when new investors lose funds in fraudulent altcoins, they leave the market without researching the differences between Bitcoin and other assets. He criticized the argument that altcoin rug pulls help Bitcoin by attracting people to the cryptocurrency market as “a misguided judgment blinded by greed.” He pointed out that a structure where investors lose funds as soon as they enter the market leads not to increased participation, but to a collapse of trust.

Cowen emphasized that strengthening the industry's fundamental resilience should take precedence over cryptocurrency ETFs, strategic Bitcoin reserves, and US crypto market structure legislation. He argued that instead of policies designed to attract new investors, fraudulent projects should be excluded, and developers and companies creating real services should be rewarded. Cowen stated, “The industry is undergoing a process of purification and maturation, and this process must continue for a long time.” He explained that a sustainable bull market is only possible if security vulnerabilities are reduced and users who enter the market can be protected.

Cowen suggested that the 4-year cycle remains valid and that the market's bearish trend could continue for several more months. He projected that a new bull market could begin after the undervaluation widens further by the end of the year. Despite short-term bearishness and structural issues within the industry, he stated that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization could grow to around $10 trillion in the long term.

[Key Article Summary]

-Benjamin Cowen projected that although the cryptocurrency market has approached its deepest undervaluation since 2010, the bearish trend could continue until the end of the year.

-He analyzed that memecoin rug pulls and cold wallet security incidents undermined individual investor trust, leading to increased market exits.

-Cowen stated that once the industry's purification and security improvements are complete, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization could grow to around $10 trillion in the long term.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*