Bitcoin Recovers $63,000 Level…'Relief Rally' on Easing Middle East Tensions

▲ US, Iran, International Oil Prices, Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image ©

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered the $63,000 level, boosted by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, analysis suggests that this rise is closer to a macroeconomic relief rally stemming from a general reduction in fear across risk assets, rather than a specific positive catalyst for Bitcoin or a recovery in institutional demand.

According to cryptocurrency market aggregator CoinMarketCap, as of August 3 (local time), Bitcoin recorded $63,654.29, up 1.37% over the past 24 hours. Considering that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose by 1.4% during the same period, Bitcoin's rebound closely aligned with the overall market trend.

The key driver was the easing of concerns about military conflict in the Middle East. According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Donald Trump canceled plans for military action against Iran, conditional on an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, the geopolitical risk premium on international oil prices and inflation concerns decreased, improving the investment environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

However, no clear additional upward momentum was observed in derivatives, on-chain activity, or capital flows within the cryptocurrency sector. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also remained in the neutral zone at 43.82. Continuous outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and the longest-ever period of Coinbase premium weakness also indicate that this rebound was not driven by a recovery in institutional demand.

In the short term, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $62,403.66 is a key support level. If the geopolitical agreement holds and Bitcoin breaks above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $64,719.93, there is a possibility of it rising to $66,000. Whether Brent crude continues its decline below $85 per barrel and the confirmation of an official agreement from Iran are also key variables.

Conversely, if negotiations fail or Bitcoin falls below $62,400, the short-term bullish structure could break, potentially retesting the $60,000 level. The market outlook is 'cautiously bullish,' but if it fails to break above $64,700, there remains a possibility of it reverting to the recently formed $62,000-$65,000 range.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*