Bitcoin: Will the 'Curse of August,' with 4 consecutive years of decline, repeat again?

▲ Bitcoin plunge/ChatGPT generated image ©

As Bitcoin (BTC) enters August, a month that has seen declines for four consecutive years since 2022, the emergence of technical sell signals further increases the possibility of additional corrections.

According to Finbold, a cryptocurrency media outlet, on August 2 (local time), market analyst Ali Martinez stated that the TD Sequential indicator on Bitcoin's 3-day chart showed a '9' sell signal. This indicator is used to identify trend exhaustion and potential price reversal points.

This signal was observed when Bitcoin traded at $63,886 after rising to around $65,000 in July. The appearance of a sell signal near recent highs suggests that upward momentum is weakening. If the seasonal bearish trend repeats, the $63,000 support level is expected to be a critical juncture for short-term prices.

Bitcoin has fallen every August since 2022. It dropped by 13.88% in August 2022, and by 11.29% and 8.60% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. In 2025, it also fell by 6.49%, bringing the average decline for the past four Augusts to about 10%. While past performance does not guarantee future movements, the repeated bearish trend is raising investor caution.

As of the time of reporting, Bitcoin was at $63,423, up 0.65% from 24 hours ago, but down approximately 1.5% on a weekly basis. The price hovered near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $63,423, indicating stable short-term momentum, while remaining significantly below the 200-day Simple Moving Average of $71,335, suggesting that the mid-to-long-term trend is still bearish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43.87, which is in the neutral zone but leaning towards bearish. This means that while selling pressure has somewhat eased, buying interest is not strong enough to drive a sustained recovery. If Bitcoin falls below $63,000, the correction could deepen, but there remains a possibility that strong positive market news could invalidate both the seasonal bearishness and technical sell signals.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*