Coinbase (COIN) Defends Target Price Amid Slowing Performance Outlook... Will it Hold the $158 Support Line?

▲ Coinbase (COIN)/AI generated image

Coinbase (Coinbase, COIN) has maintained Wall Street's target price of $240 despite a projected slowdown in performance, but the $158 support line and delays in the US cryptocurrency market structure bill have emerged as key variables for the stock price.

According to crypto media outlet CoinGape on July 29 (local time), Coinbase will announce its Q2 earnings on July 30. The market expects Q2 revenue to be $1.31 billion, a 12.8% decrease from last year's Q2 revenue of $1.5 billion and also lower than Q1 revenue of $1.41 billion this year. The weak cryptocurrency market and decreased trading volume were cited as factors weighing on performance.

Wall Street investment firm Rosenblatt maintained its "outperform" rating and a target price of $240 for Coinbase. It assessed that increased revenue from derivatives and prediction market businesses could partially offset sluggish trading. In contrast, JPMorgan lowered its target price from $283 to $196. This decision was based on the judgment that the revenue-sharing agreement with Hyperliquid could reduce earnings generated from USDC reserve assets.

In terms of technical trends, $172 was presented as the most important resistance level. Coinbase's stock price formed an ascending triangle, maintaining its highs while its lows rose. CoinGape analyzed that if the stock breaks above $172 on a closing basis, it could rise to $208, reflecting the 21% height of the ascending triangle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained in neutral territory at 53, but buying pressure showed a slight advantage. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also turned positive, indicating strengthening upward momentum.

The support line that defines the downside risk is $158. CoinGape predicted that if the stock falls below $158, selling pressure driven by concerns of further decline could intensify. The next downside target is $139, recorded on June 26. The ability to break above $172 and defend $158 after the earnings announcement will be the key determining factor for the short-term direction.

Regulatory variables also remain. On Polymarket, the probability of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill passing within 2026 has dropped to an all-time low of 30%. This reflects the analysis that it will be difficult to secure the 60 votes needed for the bill to pass before the Senate recess begins on August 7. Delays in the bill's processing could limit the inflow of individual and institutional investors waiting for regulatory uncertainty to be resolved, putting pressure on Coinbase's stock price.

[Key Article Summary]

-Coinbase's Q2 revenue forecast is $1.31 billion, expected to decrease by 12.8% compared to the same period last year.

-Rosenblatt maintained a target price of $240, but JPMorgan lowered its target price to $196.

-If $172 is broken, $208 could be reached, but if $158 collapses, it could fall to $139.

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