Raoul Pal: "Bitcoin (BTC) Price Movements 87% Driven by Global Liquidity"

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An analysis suggests that 87% of Bitcoin (BTC) price movements are linked to global liquidity. The argument is that money released into financial markets, rather than corporate earnings or news, dictates the price.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoin.com on July 28 (local time), Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager, presented an 87% correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity. He stated that the correlation for Nasdaq is 97%.

Pal said, “Bitcoin shows an 87% correlation with global liquidity, and Nasdaq shows 97%.” He added, “Both assets track the amount of money present in the financial system, not earnings or news.” Global liquidity encompasses central bank balance sheets, global broad money, and increased bank credit.

Pal also claimed in May that the correlation between Bitcoin and global money supply was approximately 90%. He explained that as global debt is refinanced every four years, central banks supply liquidity to maintain the financial system. He also projected that if central bank liquidity supply significantly increases by year-end, Bitcoin could rise to $450,000.

Cryptocurrency market maker Keyrock presented a model suggesting that it takes approximately 8 months for U.S. Treasury issuance to be reflected in Bitcoin returns. This implies that the current correlation might reflect funding conditions from several months ago rather than real-time liquidity. Michael Saylor, Chairman of MicroStrategy (MSTR), also assessed that the halving-centric 4-year cycle is no longer the dominant model.

Specific data and analysis methods for the 87% correlation presented by Pal were not disclosed. The relationship between Bitcoin and liquidity also did not remain constant throughout 2026. The validity of the $450,000 forecast depends on whether central bank balance sheets actually expand by year-end.

[Article Summary]

-Raoul Pal claimed an 87% correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity.

-Pal projected that Bitcoin could rise to $450,000 if central banks significantly supply liquidity by year-end.

-Specific data and analysis methods for the 87% figure were not disclosed.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*