Ripple Coin Plunges 5%... 95.4% of Individual Investors Bet on Rise, 'Liquidation Warning'

▲ XRP (XRP)/AI generated image ©

As XRP (Ripple) broke the $1.054 support line and faced the risk of collapsing to $1, the extreme bias of 95.4% of individual investors leaning towards long positions emerged as a trigger for further decline.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on July 29 (local time), XRP recorded a decline of approximately 5% to $1.049 on the 28th, dropping as low as $1.0486 on Binance during trading hours. Following a 4% drop on the 27th, it also fell below $1.054, the neckline of a double top pattern formed twice around $1.17 in July. On the same day, Bitcoin (BTC) fell to around $63,300, Ethereum (ETH) dropped 3.2% to $1,874, and Stellar (XLM) fell over 5%. Approximately $600 million worth of leveraged positions were liquidated across the market.

Technical indicators also point to a clear bearish trend. XRP is trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, which are at $1.13, $1.21, and $1.42 respectively. The daily Chaikin Money Flow registered -0.12, indicating selling dominance, and the 4-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also saw its baseline, signal line, and histogram all decline into negative territory. Notably, on major CFD platforms, 95.4% of individual investors held long positions, while only 4.6% held short positions. While the possibility of a short squeeze is limited due to the excessive concentration of long positions, the risk of cascading forced liquidations has increased if support levels are breached.

Institutional fund inflows have also virtually stagnated. On the 10th, only $107,000 flowed into US spot XRP ETFs, and the net inflow for the week until the 25th was a mere $8.15 million. The net assets of the seven products fell below $1 billion, ranging from approximately $997 million to $999 million, with cumulative net inflows since launch totaling $1.49 billion. Although Ripple collaborated with Mastercard, JPMorgan, OKX, and Ondo Finance and introduced an institutional stablecoin platform, its corporate achievements could not overcome the bear market and the strong dollar.

The short-term support zone is $1.043-$1.05, and if it breaks, the late June low of $1.01-$1.03 and the psychological threshold of $1 will be tested sequentially. The downside target for the double top pattern is approximately $0.94. For a rebound, it must first recover $1.0981, which is the Bollinger Band midline and a key liquidity zone, and a move above $1.13 would confirm a trend reversal signal. Analysis suggests that if the Federal Reserve issues hawkish signals, the likelihood of a $1 collapse increases, whereas if the dollar weakens due to dovish messages, a technical rebound could occur based on extreme oversold indicators.

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