BlackRock Shakes Bitcoin Spot ETF…3 Weeks of Consecutive Net Inflows 'At Risk' Ahead of Fed Decision

▲ BlackRock Bitcoin/ChatGPT generated image ©

As US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded three consecutive trading days of outflows, with a single BlackRock product leading the overall selling pressure, the three-week recovery in institutional funds is now being tested ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision.

According to investment media TradingNews on July 29 (local time), US spot Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $11.64 million on the 27th. Among the 13 products, the only ones with fund flows were BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC). IBIT saw an outflow of $8.82 million, and FBTC saw an outflow of $2.82 million, with no products attracting new funds. The total trading volume was recorded at $1.34 billion, and net assets at $78.71 billion.

Recent outflows have been concentrated in IBIT. US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total of $465.26 million flow out over two days, with $225.2 million on the 23rd and $240.08 million on the 24th. Of this, IBIT's net outflow amounted to approximately $415 million. Particularly on the 24th, IBIT alone saw an outflow of $212.17 million, accounting for over 88% of the total net outflow for that day. FBTC also saw an outflow of $27.91 million, but the remaining 11 products, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and Ark 21Shares, showed no fund movements.

Despite the sharp outflows, as of the 24th, the weekly net inflow recorded $33.79 million, maintaining a positive trend for three consecutive weeks. The net inflows for the previous two weeks were $197 million and $75.67 million, respectively, bringing the cumulative total for three weeks to approximately $306 million. However, compared to the net outflow of $4.06 billion in June, this only represents a recovery of 7.5% of the losses incurred over the month. IBIT's cumulative net inflow since its launch also reached $60.39 billion, but its net assets are $47.2 billion, creating a gap of approximately $13.2 billion between the two figures.

Future trends are expected to be influenced by the results of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The target range for the benchmark interest rate is 3.50-3.75%, with approximately a 36% probability of a 0.25 percentage point hike and an approximately 80% probability of a September hike. If the Fed keeps interest rates stable and issues dovish signals, funds could flow into at least three products, including IBIT, continuing the weekly net inflow streak. Conversely, if a hawkish message signaling an actual hike or a September hike emerges, redemptions of over $200 million per trading day could recur in IBIT. In this scenario, an analysis suggests that just two outflows could erase all $306 million of the three-week recovery, potentially pushing BTC towards the $61,000 support level.

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