Bitwise "Bitcoin Bear Market to Bottom Soon"...4 Major Catalysts Revealed

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Bear Market, Bull Market/AI Generated Image

A forecast has emerged that the passage of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill could signal the bottom of the prolonged crypto bear market. Despite the probability of the bill's passage plummeting from 75% to 40%, Bitwise presented four major catalysts expected to shake the market in Q3, including stablecoin growth, U.S. monetary policy, and DeFi strength.

According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on July 10 (local time), asset management firm Bitwise identified the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill as a key market catalyst in its Q3 2026 report. Ethical provisions related to the presidential family's crypto interests have emerged as a contentious issue, and debates continue between lawmakers and law enforcement agencies over Article 604, which protects non-custodial developers from money transmitter regulations. The probability of the bill's passage in 2026, as aggregated by prediction markets, fell from 75% in mid-May to approximately 40%.

Bitwise believes that the outcome of the bill's vote could determine the direction of the bear market. Bitwise stated, “If it passes, we believe there's a high probability it will mark the bottom of this bear market. If it fails, there will be initial volatility, but uncertainty will clear as the industry continues to build under pro-crypto U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).” By Q2, the crypto market recorded losses for three consecutive quarters, entering its longest slump since 2022.

The second catalyst is stablecoins. The detailed regulations for the stablecoin regulatory bill GENIUS are expected to be finalized in Q3, with the law's effective date set for January 2027. Bitwise noted that while crypto prices have continued to decline since last fall, stablecoin supply has remained around $300 billion. Bitwise assessed, “If stablecoin growth accelerates in Q3, it could be a catalyst for blockchains like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).” OpenUSD, supported by Stripe, BlackRock, Visa, Coinbase, and approximately 140 other companies, was also presented as an example.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy and the DeFi market were also cited as variables. Bitwise expects that the Fed's policy direction, led by Chairman Kevin Warsh, is not yet fully known to the market and that the monetary policy stance will become clearer by the end of Q3. While the direction of interest rates is difficult to determine, the explanation is that the crypto market could also move, as the Fed's decisions influence investor sentiment across all risk assets.

In the DeFi market, Bitwise's assessment is that a crack in price trends has already appeared. While Bitcoin (BTC) fell by about 22% in the past month, the Bitwise DeFi Index dropped by only 4%. Bitwise stated, “DeFi typically moves much more significantly than Bitcoin, so this strong resilience is unusual and almost nobody is talking about it. DeFi is quietly being re-evaluated, and we expect its relative strength to continue in Q3.”

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitwise predicts that the passage of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill is highly likely to signal the bottom of the current crypto bear market.

-Although the probability of the bill's passage in 2026 dropped from 75% in mid-May to approximately 40%, stablecoin growth and Fed policy were also identified as Q3 market catalysts.

-While Bitcoin fell by about 22% in the past month, the Bitwise DeFi Index dropped by only 4%, drawing attention to DeFi's relative strength.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*