Strategy stock price determined by 'Bitcoin' direction... "If it can't surpass $60,000, it will crash"

▲ Strategy (MSTR), Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image

A forecast has emerged that the next direction of Bitcoin (BTC) could either save Strategy's (MSTR) stock price or push it into a deeper slump. 24/7 Wall Street presented a 12-month target price of $358.56 for Strategy, predicting a 268.28% upside potential based on Bitcoin's recovery, but simultaneously warned of a beta of 3.55 and $8.17 billion in long-term debt.

According to 24/7 Wall Street on July 9 (local time), Bitcoin has fallen 27.34% since the beginning of the year, and Strategy has dropped 35.93%. Strategy plummeted 75.39% from $395.67 over the past year, while Bitcoin also fell 41.65% during the same period. 24/7 Wall Street issued a 'Buy' rating for Strategy with a 50% confidence level, based on its proprietary model.

First-quarter earnings fully revealed the impact of the Bitcoin price decline. Strategy reported a net loss per share of $38.25, significantly missing market expectations of $18.98, reflecting $14.46 billion in unrealized Bitcoin losses due to fair value accounting. In contrast, revenue increased by 11.9% year-over-year to $124.3 million, and subscription service revenue grew from $37.1 million to $58.88 million. Bitcoin holdings increased to 818,334 BTC in early May.

CEO Phong Le stated, “Traditional finance and major banks, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citi, are launching Bitcoin services.” 24/7 Wall Street's bullish scenario focused on Bitcoin price recovery and the effect of holding 818,334 BTC. Its proprietary model projected Strategy's stock price at $492.63 by July 2027, indicating a 405.99% return potential. The STRC preferred stock program's cumulative total funding this year expanded to $5.6 billion, with daily trading volume reaching $375 million.

On the flip side are financial risks that amplify Bitcoin's decline. Strategy's beta is 3.55, long-term debt is $8.17 billion, and quarterly preferred stock dividend burden is $229.5 million. 24/7 Wall Street analyzed that the bullish scenario would hold if Bitcoin maintains the $60,000 level and STRC issuance continues, but the investment thesis would weaken if further declines necessitate selling Bitcoin to cover preferred stock-related funding burdens.

24/7 Wall Street's proprietary model presented Strategy's target prices as $204.2 in 2026, $358.56 in 2027, $1,150 in 2028, $2,400 in 2029, and $4,242 in 2030. This outlook is based on the premise that Strategy will continue its Bitcoin accumulation and STRC strategies, and that a long-term upward trend for Bitcoin will resume. Continued Bitcoin bullishness, credit market shocks, and MSCI index-related actions were presented as variables that could change the forecast's upside and downside.

[Article Key Summary]

-24/7 Wall Street presented a 12-month target price of $358.56 for Strategy, forecasting a 268.28% upside potential.

-Strategy holds 818,334 BTC but faces a beta of 3.55, long-term debt of $8.17 billion, and a quarterly preferred stock dividend burden of $229.5 million.

-Based on Bitcoin recovery and continuous accumulation, the proprietary model presented Strategy's 2030 target price as $4,242.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*