"Whale Accumulation Highest Since 2013"...Has Bitcoin (BTC) Truly Bottomed Out?

▲ Cryptocurrency Whale, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady around $62,000. Simultaneously, whales have accumulated over 270,000 BTC in the last 30 days, reigniting the possibility of a market bottom. This analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency market has entered a 2019-style bottoming phase, driven by the largest 30-day whale accumulation since 2013 and improved ETF fund flows.

Paul Barron, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Paul Barron Network, pointed out in a video uploaded on July 9 (local time) that Bitcoin has been trading below the active investor cost basis, which is the breakeven point for recent buyers, for about five months since early February 2026. Barron presented Bitcoin's sustained hold around $62,000, even amid ongoing negative factors such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and geopolitical instability related to Iran, as a signal to consider the possibility of a market bottom. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) also indicates investor losses and extreme sentiment contraction, suggesting the cycle is nearing its bottom, according to the analysis.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated, "The current feeling is very familiar. It's quite similar to the crypto winter of early 2019." Hougan added that major negative factors such as Strategy sales, the US crypto market structure bill, and fund replacement effects are already known to the market, and he believes "we are in the process of forming a bottom." However, he also left open the possibility of Bitcoin dropping to the $50,000 range, suggesting that buying high-conviction cryptocurrencies using a time-weighted average price method might lead to thinking "you wish you had waited a month later, but you'll be quite satisfied a year later."

Whale and institutional funds are also key reasons Barron highlighted. Bitcoin whales accumulated over 270,000 BTC in the last 30 days, marking the largest 30-day accumulation since 2013, and there have been slight positive changes in Bitcoin ETFs, which had seen continuous outflows since May. Ethereum (ETH) ETFs recorded a large daily inflow of $70 million the previous day, the first in 28 days, and have seen a continuous inflow of $162 million for the past 5 consecutive days.

The movement of traditional finance entering digital assets also supported the bullish argument. With Vanguard actively recruiting digital asset-related personnel, Barron assessed that institutions have begun to seriously look into digital asset infrastructure and use cases. Robinhood Markets' decentralized exchange (DEX) daily trading volume hit an all-time high of $560 million, and Barron introduced market projections that if banks, brokerage firms, fintech companies, and asset management firms adopt the Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem, the value connected to Ethereum could expand from hundreds of billions of dollars to trillions of dollars.

Barron did not confirm a market bottom, instead presenting the Fed's interest rate policy, inflation pressure from AI infrastructure, the possibility of Japan's interest rate hike, issues with Iran and US strategic petroleum reserves, and Strategy's earnings announcement as major risk factors. He also cited the Fed's assessment that AI infrastructure demand could drive up prices for technology products and electricity, with semiconductor companies' market capitalization accounting for 15% of the entire S&P 500. With the likelihood of the US crypto market structure bill passing remaining around 45%, Barron emphasized the need to monitor both bullish signals like whale accumulation and improved ETF funds, along with macroeconomic risks.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin whales accumulated over 270,000 BTC in the last 30 days, marking the largest 30-day accumulation since 2013.

-Matt Hougan expressed the view that the current cryptocurrency market is similar to the crypto winter of early 2019 and is in the process of forming a bottom.

-Despite improved fund flows for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the Fed's policy, AI-driven inflation pressure, and uncertainty surrounding the US crypto market structure bill remain risk factors.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*