Bitcoin (BTC) Enters 'Cruel 91 Days' Before Bear Market Ends... Defense of $44,000 is Vital

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The Bitcoin (BTC) bear market has entered its final 91-day period, which marked the end of the previous three downturns. If past trends repeat, the range of $44,000 to $47,000 will emerge as the critical battleground for the bottom until early October.

According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on July 9 (local time), Bitcoin has entered a 91-day period, similar to the end of the last three bear markets. The final 91 days of past bear markets were characterized by the fastest and steepest losses within the entire downturn cycle, but the magnitude of the drops decreased with each cycle.

From October 2014 to January 2015, Bitcoin fell by 63.54%, bottoming out at $152. From September to December 2018, the drop narrowed to 56.69%, with a low of $3,210. From August to November 2022, the FTX collapse shook market confidence, leading to a 37.60% decline, pushing the price down to $15,632.

BeInCrypto analyzed the three previous declines using linear regression and projected an estimated drop of 26.64% for the final 91 days of the current bear market. Applying this drop to the recent weekly high of $64,657, the estimated bottom is $47,431. This 91-day period extends from July to early October.

Logarithmic Fibonacci analysis also pointed to a similar price range. Based on the high of $126,272 and the previous bear market low of $15,632, the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level is $44,428. This aligns with the $47,431 suggested by linear regression, proposing the $44,000-$47,000 range as a potential bottom.

However, the past cases used for this analysis are only three, and macroeconomic shocks and Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows could also influence the model. BeInCrypto analyzed that if the weekly close falls significantly below $44,000, the validity of this analysis model weakens, but if the $44,000-$47,000 range is maintained, a similar trend to past bear market cycles will continue.

[Key Article Summary]

-Bitcoin has entered the same 91-day period that marked the end of the previous three bear markets.

-Linear regression analysis suggested $47,431, and logarithmic Fibonacci analysis suggested $44,428 as potential bottom price levels.

-The defense of the $44,000-$47,000 range has been identified as a critical zone that will determine whether past bear market cycles repeat.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*